Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x410d2367daf773da955eea6e729c3356180202f7791e5c6384feecffb569d7b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 35c | 1,591$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.95 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 67c | 740.79$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 30c | 638.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.02 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 55c | 621.11$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…56a3backed Yes | 49c | 422.4$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…2e0dbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 70c | 337.42$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 62c | 323.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -91%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…88cdbacked Yes | 52c | 311.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 42c | 296.55$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 39c | 273.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 39c | 271.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…5bbfbacked No | 79c | 248$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 21c | 238$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.02 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +432.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd601…fceebacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 19c | 183.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…8443backed Yes | 66c | 182.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 36c | 170.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed No | 31c | 160.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 46c | 145.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…3873backed Yes | 60c | 140.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…90f6backed Yes | 76c | 131.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 109.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked No | 36c | 98.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…8ecebacked Yes | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 32c | 96.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 34c | 76.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 67c | 74.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 33c | 73.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 55.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…743bbacked Yes | 71c | 55.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…b1e4backed Yes | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 48c | 41.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 44c | 38.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked No | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed No | 58c | 34.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked No | 34c | 34.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…5fa1backed Yes | 64c | 33.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…df4ebacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…26b6backed Yes | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed Yes | 71c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 38c | 27.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…e657backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f4…5fd8backed No | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…de6abacked Yes | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed Yes | 54c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…b092backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 60c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f6…d059backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…9cdebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.