Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d81f25fa37b11782548e26aa2e2fb35b6f1c49964abbeb43761e19d962e012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 48c | 1,193$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 64c | 1,152$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.58 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 30c | 603.65$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.51 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 559.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 53c | 516.72$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.54 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 68c | 512$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 33c | 399.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 27c | 349.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 20c | 300.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 268.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 259.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 26c | 222.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 29c | 217.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 27c | 187.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…78b2backed Yes | 30c | 177.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed No | 75c | 173.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 26c | 169.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 69c | 169.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed Yes | 31c | 162.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 72c | 158.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked No | 65c | 150.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed No | 71c | 141.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 77c | 130.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked No | 69c | 125.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 32c | 125.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 65c | 119.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 30c | 115.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked Yes | 35c | 115.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 69c | 100.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 33c | 89.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 32c | 87.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 31c | 81.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 56c | 73.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 70.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…7ababacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 65c | 69.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 19c | 64.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked Yes | 31c | 63.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 62.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…5066backed Yes | 28c | 62.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…ad90backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…6f85backed Yes | 39c | 51.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…2d0dbacked No | 68c | 42.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…a571backed No | 75c | 40.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 70c | 39.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 68c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…8e43backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…3adfbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…1430backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…e600backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…08aabacked No | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…c8c5backed Yes | 36c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 44c | 27.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 69c | 26.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f4…5fd8backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 67c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…a3f1backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…9bb9backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7622…e618backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 74c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.