Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb387fb6583734bca15891c351de99beb4c0ebba3c0edda753f4c443f40f7431a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Yes | 57c | 1,527$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 52c | 1,494$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.68 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.6 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 51c | 942.76$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.16 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 43c | 812.06$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.64 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 698.57$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.33 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 668.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…44b8backed Yes | 49c | 665.35$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 48c | 614.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.49 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…cf2bbacked Yes | 49c | 412.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 45c | 411.1$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 51c | 363.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 61c | 281$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 49c | 249.37$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 56c | 238.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 42c | 235.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 62c | 215$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 51c | 212.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 48c | 194.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 45c | 181.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…4e39backed Yes | 57c | 176.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 40c | 140.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 45c | 131.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…406ebacked Yes | 44c | 113.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 49c | 107.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe915…f3bfbacked Yes | 44c | 90.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 44c | 89.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 59c | 84.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 40c | 82.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…ae5fbacked Yes | 43c | 82.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 38c | 79.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 67.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…5066backed Yes | 62c | 64.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…ea3fbacked No | 51c | 57.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…beb0backed Yes | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…63cebacked Yes | 39c | 51.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 49.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…1630backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…3325backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked No | 57c | 39.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a70…3fc8backed Yes | 38c | 37.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 36.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7791backed Yes | 44c | 35.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…8324backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 64c | 33.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 55c | 31.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c42…66b5backed No | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…d3adbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…5a89backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 60c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…ffacbacked No | 80c | 24.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…eb5dbacked Yes | 45c | 24.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90c…60a9backed Yes | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 62c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…8e19backed Yes | 63c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Edging" 3+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Sorry" during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Variable" during October press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.