TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd90c…60a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Music, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Music at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 10 straight weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 18 straight weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 19 straight weeks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.66
Will Taylor Swift hold less than 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.91
Taylor Swift “Opalite” 195M Spotify Streams on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$25.92
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be under 300k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT+248.1%+$49.61
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.01
Dogecoin all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.56
2024 November hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lucy Powell win the UK Labour Party’s Deputy Leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Orlando City SC win the 2025 MLS Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.