AI · resolved market

Will Katy Perry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb018eda09cea742e4a43eff477bb95eb1f2a6642752a3a7afd7e543ae701796

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,403 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,361$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.41	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc51d…3ca1backed Yes	11c	6,918$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.89	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	2c	4,932$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.23	479	38%182 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	2c	4,891$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.05	190	11.6%22 W · 168 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes	4c	1,510$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.11	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	2c	1,445$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	150	2.7%4 W · 146 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	5c	1,300$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.12	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	3c	1,149$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd90c…60a9backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	128	39.8%51 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes	8c	758.47$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.68	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes	4c	564.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	7c	464$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	11cpaid	+92.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	4c	463.89$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes	8c	299.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	230.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.01	574	26.8%154 W · 420 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes	7c	155.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Katy Perry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event