TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Sam Altman rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,823 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c53,333$70 inLost-$702920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c10,000$17 inLost-$17580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,571$48 inLost-$48.131,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf732…d078backed Yes8c5,224$404 inLost-$403.671618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c4,779$122 inLost-$121.7919011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes4c3,473$155 inLost-$155.41323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-88.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6d1…32b8backed Yes6c1,000$64 inLost-$63.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfde6…0329backed Yes4c999.98$35 inLost-$35.570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5238…a3c3backed Yes4c507.38$18 inLost-$18.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x010b…81dcbacked Yes8c500$40 inLost-$39.550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b21…b8abbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391a…dce4backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+109.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd305…4e8bbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe137…3f2cbacked Yes12c110$13 inLost-$13.250%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10120%0 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost-$183633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.