TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Greta Thunberg rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c8,238$31 inLost-$30.591,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc51d…3ca1backed Yes14c6,297$867 inLost-$866.571435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf4…5608backed Yes7c1,000$65 inLost-$651546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes17c745.88$123 inLost-$123.488122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes6c340$20 inLost-$20.44522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf732…d078backed Yes12c324.23$40 inLost-$39.951618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…b8abbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost-$18714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…5b68backed No76c50$38 inWon+$12977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+78.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No76c37.35$28 inWon+$8.968551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.