Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f7d6635ebc4ad941aace2ec5058184171a7a05871cbf351fcbbaf66900aa4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd90c…60a9backed Yes | 0c | 10,245$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229d…ab14backed Yes | 3c | 7,417$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 7c | 3,663$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…94d5backed Yes | 15c | 3,177$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…aa32backed Yes | 10c | 2,802$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…3a63backed Yes | 2c | 2,589$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 3c | 1,999$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 11c | 1,870$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…0b1abacked Yes | 13c | 1,374$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Yes | 14c | 1,117$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…c73bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Yes | 16c | 890$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf1…98cbbacked Yes | 7c | 877.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 837.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Yes | 13c | 828.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 15c | 645.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…3d2fbacked Yes | 5c | 434.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…a2e5backed Yes | 5c | 430.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 390.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 13c | 389.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…d0edbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca26…9b38backed Yes | 12c | 207.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Yes | 11c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 186.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 12c | 158.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 157.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…ebaabacked Yes | 13c | 157.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…6027backed Yes | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…3f80backed Yes | 15c | 146.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…28e2backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…d4d4backed Yes | 13c | 134.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8751…298abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 78c | 128.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…f793backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?this page
- Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
- Will Taylor Swift hold less than 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.