Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40c4c2e9110c9aec6b5853ba10e6e219e430dec5dea2aa42ef21b97e05dae19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,132$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.09 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…b91fbacked Yes | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…7970backed No | 1c | 2,337$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed Yes | 49c | 1,558$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 47c | 931.01$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 41c | 668$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…b825backed Yes | 45c | 665$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…b1dbbacked Yes | 71c | 578.66$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 53c | 551.74$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…aa32backed No | 53c | 524.02$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 456.66$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.91 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…94d5backed No | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 54c | 323.18$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 50c | 299.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 249.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 240.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.28 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 60c | 218.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 47c | 211.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…d0edbacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…022bbacked No | 58c | 181.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 50c | 138$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 40c | 136$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942f…b5f4backed Yes | 75c | 106.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…4276backed Yes | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed No | 62c | 80.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 46c | 77.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 62c | 75.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 68.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 45c | 66.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…e671backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…c955backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 49c | 51.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 49.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…d1b1backed No | 55c | 45.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 57c | 44.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b4…a2b6backed No | 26c | 42.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5791…2aa0backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 47c | 39.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…bb93backed Yes | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 47c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…26d5backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…b9f9backed No | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?this page
- Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
- Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
- Will Taylor Swift hold less than 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.