Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a2b06c0c9fae4f3d57cb7008431b763d3699648da6d25aaa70ed2e01a4723f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd90c…60a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…b1dbbacked Yes | 44c | 962.73$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 49c | 750.04$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.35 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 44c | 668$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 39c | 513.12$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 69c | 421.47$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…c73bbacked Yes | 21c | 405.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 403.69$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.87 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes | 48c | 318$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 22c | 295$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 241$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 226.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 62c | 182.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 145.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 136.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…3d2fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…3a63backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 38c | 80.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…646ebacked Yes | 22c | 78.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 31c | 55.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…d0edbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 35c | 42.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 59c | 42.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 29c | 41.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 39c | 40.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 68c | 40.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 60c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?this page
- Will Taylor Swift hold 6 or more spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
- Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift hold less than 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.