Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158613f6a28a7417191c1d00dceb0d437c8f126e6e33ffb5ad9766a28d04ea62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 3,833$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.1 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 43c | 3,485$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed No | 52c | 1,962$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.91 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 40c | 1,664$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…d148backed Yes | 5c | 1,208$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 46c | 1,174$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.64 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 30c | 1,144$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 50c | 1,029$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.11 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…7f4fbacked Yes | 23c | 995.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed No | 53c | 878.93$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…124fbacked Yes | 49c | 866.5$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed No | 50c | 793.7$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 762.06$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…a551backed Yes | 12c | 743.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 47c | 704.79$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.36 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 56c | 690.9$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 17c | 593.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 26c | 584.73$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 68c | 509.03$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 79c | 503.77$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 75c | 494.63$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 27c | 473.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 16c | 468.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 458.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1c…892dbacked Yes | 51c | 456.92$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 454.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 9c | 425.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 52c | 420$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 406$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…d3b9backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 399.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 398.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 24c | 390.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 51c | 390.36$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…fa49backed Yes | 16c | 314.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 49c | 301.89$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 48c | 299.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 60c | 288.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 274.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 229.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 49c | 226.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 60c | 225.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 210.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c1…1889backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 30c | 201.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7636…43dcbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…815ebacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 14c | 195.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…5049backed No | 54c | 195$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…f154backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ad8bbacked No | 52c | 191.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 74c | 185$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…93d1backed Yes | 54c | 183.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3baf…b46dbacked No | 65c | 180.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 43c | 164.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…71acbacked No | 52c | 156.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 9c | 140.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc571…2dc3backed Yes | 16c | 138.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3386…e288backed No | 75c | 134.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…da8bbacked No | 74c | 128.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe632…aa26backed No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…c1bfbacked Yes | 52c | 127.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe181…e457backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 45c | 123.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 52c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 53c | 114.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7269…4ed8backed No | 77c | 104.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5feb…3173backed No | 55c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…2e43backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…59fdbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2577…83d6backed No | 51c | 98.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…bfd7backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 52c | 97.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…4da4backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…fcecbacked No | 74c | 84.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…837abacked Yes | 45c | 84.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…cc4dbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…5442backed Yes | 22c | 80.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 47c | 79.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 49c | 77.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…4d77backed No | 51c | 76.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b78…2637backed Yes | 17c | 73.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 69c | 70.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…0582backed Yes | 54c | 69.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?No won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.