Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d845f0915af69e906a28fcb6bae8dc8c56db943171f455cb3c77b4e09692e6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 4c | 2,300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 13c | 1,840$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 39c | 981.62$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 69c | 718.07$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 9c | 715.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 14c | 712.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…0ba6backed Yes | 14c | 609.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 37c | 600.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Yes | 16c | 577.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 65c | 460.11$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 368.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 52c | 332.11$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 330.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fa…d648backed No | 62c | 321.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 64c | 310.81$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…b0e3backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…7acabacked No | 71c | 283.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 73c | 269.84$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…93d1backed Yes | 38c | 261.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 13c | 252.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…5879backed No | 59c | 251.36$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 66c | 235.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 23c | 222.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…61d4backed No | 60c | 213.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 30c | 206.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 18c | 199.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…b824backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 79c | 156.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…8e4bbacked No | 65c | 153.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…8049backed No | 66c | 152.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…0f82backed Yes | 33c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…727dbacked Yes | 18c | 128.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 34c | 127.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 117.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 116.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes | 26c | 109.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 66c | 103.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…571dbacked No | 71c | 70.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 73c | 68.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…a1adbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 57c | 63.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b5cbbacked Yes | 24c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed No | 77c | 51.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…ced4backed No | 66c | 49.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 80c | 49.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a60…f4debacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda90…590bbacked No | 64c | 39.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…03e9backed No | 66c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…14b4backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 62c | 26.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ad…5c10backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…9362backed No | 75c | 25.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ac…8e6cbacked No | 71c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…70d2backed No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…1307backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…3cf3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?No won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.