Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb9e589458a02c0053f1cf62f0ddc24f6594df4ae03d7c1bf738d4c55c72ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1033…d851backed No | 63c | 6,961$4,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 26c | 5,175$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 15c | 3,971$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.56 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 33c | 3,642$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.02 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 36c | 2,788$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.26 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 66c | 1,787$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 31c | 1,699$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.19 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed Yes | 36c | 1,594$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 62c | 1,370$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 44c | 1,307$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…8fd0backed No | 45c | 1,238$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…0d8ebacked No | 75c | 1,231$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 13c | 1,140$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.66 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,066$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 799.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…d1e1backed No | 71c | 792.14$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 16c | 713.46$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed Yes | 58c | 693.28$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked No | 20c | 631.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.35 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 76c | 621.5$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 45c | 599.91$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.45 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 22c | 590.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 586.65$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed No | 70c | 572.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 564.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 65c | 555.49$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…7acabacked No | 69c | 436.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…8049backed No | 39c | 433.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 56c | 343.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.63 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes | 51c | 320.01$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 40c | 319.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked No | 66c | 317.91$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 50c | 316.97$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 77c | 312.93$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcd…9293backed Yes | 39c | 299.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…727dbacked Yes | 9c | 298.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No | 63c | 255.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…32b4backed Yes | 35c | 225$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 20c | 224.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 56c | 208.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 42c | 198.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 34c | 191.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 48c | 191.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…7ed6backed No | 62c | 188.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 44c | 173.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…19a4backed No | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 65c | 153.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b5cbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…0522backed No | 69c | 146.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…93d1backed Yes | 70c | 143.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 67c | 132.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 42c | 127.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…3893backed No | 67c | 127.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 48c | 125.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…4bcebacked Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 36c | 124.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…de3bbacked No | 41c | 122.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 120.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…72b9backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed No | 64c | 114.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked No | 45c | 112.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…571dbacked No | 67c | 105.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 30c | 100.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe014…478cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed No | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…84a0backed No | 70c | 96.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…168cbacked No | 35c | 94.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…c64bbacked No | 35c | 94.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 75c | 93.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…2ad7backed No | 60c | 88.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…ad5dbacked No | 40c | 87.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…fc4fbacked No | 63c | 86.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…942cbacked No | 58c | 86.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568e…c24fbacked No | 63c | 86.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…c0cabacked No | 40c | 84.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a2…2c19backed No | 67c | 81.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f1…6035backed No | 60c | 81.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…eccfbacked Yes | 27c | 80.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5a…f5a8backed No | 66c | 79.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 37c | 79.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1159…b4adbacked No | 65c | 77.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…ed42backed No | 67c | 76.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 51c | 74.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…22a2backed No | 67c | 74.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…f4bdbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 61c | 70.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 58c | 65.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 52c | 65.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…59d3backed No | 47c | 65.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…05d7backed No | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…cc09backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda90…590bbacked No | 68c | 58.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 55c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?No won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.