Weather · resolved market
2024 November hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96406c76970baa76db90cf64e7ed96c7f3f12012107a11ea770cf67b7e67451f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,731,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,948,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,731,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 54,553$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…0406backed Yes | 4c | 27,898$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 4c | 27,118$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 7c | 25,190$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe793…0781backed Yes | 12c | 23,958$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 7c | 22,593$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 10,585$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 10,060$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 1c | 9,857$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 2c | 9,838$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…43a2backed Yes | 2c | 6,115$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 2c | 6,087$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…86b2backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4955…5a28backed Yes | 2c | 5,836$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…639abacked Yes | 6c | 5,450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…6993backed Yes | 7c | 4,885$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 4,743$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…4041backed Yes | 43c | 4,642$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed No | 69c | 4,294$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…82b3backed Yes | 4c | 3,811$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…6284backed Yes | 2c | 3,137$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…045dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,885$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc577…41d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,438$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd302…7762backed Yes | 13c | 2,340$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e9…d8fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…4e45backed Yes | 9c | 2,141$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,977$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1422…438bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,951$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…7ee3backed Yes | 14c | 1,818$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…5cddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,705$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…1d1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,559$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,518$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc912…e7ffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,403$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 62c | 1,380$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.58 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9361…f031backed Yes | 13c | 1,177$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…a219backed Yes | 13c | 1,116$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…435abacked Yes | 7c | 1,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…ba1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Yes | 12c | 999.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…8684backed Yes | 6c | 965.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 18c | 888.39$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5512…5941backed Yes | 2c | 861.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…7077backed Yes | 27c | 856.1$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 4c | 849.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62a…e388backed Yes | 12c | 849.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 4c | 778.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…820fbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…652bbacked Yes | 4c | 666.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…75e4backed Yes | 7c | 646$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…644dbacked Yes | 12c | 607.02$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked No | 68c | 594.98$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.55 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…b1b6backed Yes | 2c | 545.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 31c | 541.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1b…3b29backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…c745backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90c…60a9backed Yes | 11c | 472.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…4313backed Yes | 11c | 470.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 65c | 459.73$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.03 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…d809backed Yes | 13c | 440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 24c | 435.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…51cfbacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…78dabacked Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…5a02backed Yes | 5c | 406.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 63c | 368.38$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 3c | 366.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a6…da58backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…fc12backed Yes | 13c | 350.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…a158backed Yes | 11c | 347.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd308…e8cebacked Yes | 8c | 340$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2881…048cbacked Yes | 3c | 340$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 6c | 336.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…6ac3backed No | 67c | 324.6$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…c27ebacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ce…6aadbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51f…8d40backed Yes | 12c | 287.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…86b2backed Yes | 33c | 272.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…f639backed Yes | 7c | 270.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…7371backed Yes | 4c | 262.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc0…03e7backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 15c | 248.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked No | 69c | 218.46$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…c5a7backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…0c0cbacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…574fbacked Yes | 8c | 196.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5890…1a49backed Yes | 13c | 186.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…a810backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc218…bbe6backed Yes | 6c | 178.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…4892backed Yes | 37c | 177.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…5b75backed Yes | 12c | 174$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.