TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d19…c745

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.55
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+733.3%+$146.67
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.81
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+104.1%+$233.31
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+263.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$150
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+107.4%+$414.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
2024 November hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.26
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $10-15b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$228.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+203%+$36.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Dignitas vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffsbacked Dignitas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$18.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Oct 19, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The MongolZ win the Elisa Masters Espoo 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.