Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef715690e9139d0c903b927604cf620c92fca6afc13c01635b456a44da2252d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $286,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a5c…a375backed Aurora | 74c | 34,454$25,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,958.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Heroic | 26c | 18,135$4,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,715.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Heroic | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Heroic | 13c | 9,447$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.22 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Heroic | 31c | 6,112$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.65 | 893 | 41.5%371 W · 522 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Heroic | 12c | 5,880$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.64 | 145 | 15.2%22 W · 123 L | -16.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Heroic | 26c | 5,555$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.3 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Aurora | 73c | 5,318$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Heroic | 18c | 5,286$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.4 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…9a17backed Heroic | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…d154backed Heroic | 11c | 4,923$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.53 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b3…039cbacked Heroic | 11c | 4,461$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Heroic | 25c | 4,412$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.56 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…273dbacked Heroic | 27c | 4,348$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.73 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Heroic | 12c | 4,000$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.98 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Heroic | 22c | 3,981$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.34 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Aurora | 78c | 3,811$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.77 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked Heroic | 18c | 3,340$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.76 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -14.0wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed Heroic | 28c | 3,021$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…c892backed Heroic | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Heroic | 28c | 2,375$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.91 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Aurora | 72c | 2,339$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.05 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Aurora | 75c | 2,325$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.15 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Heroic | 27c | 2,313$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.89 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Heroic | 24c | 2,300$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…cdb1backed Aurora | 72c | 2,100$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora | 75c | 1,970$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.5 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 26c | 1,855$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.31 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…c745backed Heroic | 21c | 1,815$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Heroic | 27c | 1,756$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.04 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 72c | 1,720$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.17 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heroic | 20c | 1,694$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.64 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Heroic | 27c | 1,595$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.2 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Heroic | 20c | 1,591$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.97 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Heroic | 26c | 1,529$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.53 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Aurora | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…1a99backed Aurora | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Heroic | 20c | 1,459$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.15 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Heroic | 28c | 1,369$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.34 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Aurora | 74c | 1,328$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.17 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic | 26c | 1,317$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.35 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Heroic | 26c | 1,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 73c | 1,190$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Aurora | 74c | 1,100$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.98 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c3…5947backed Aurora | 75c | 1,051$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.67 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Heroic | 26c | 1,031$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.06 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1b…e3b3backed Heroic | 28c | 1,025$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Heroic | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Aurora | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Heroic | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Heroic | 28c | 956.8$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 459 | 40.5%186 W · 273 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Heroic | 28c | 956.8$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Heroic | 26c | 956.8$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.23 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed Heroic | 26c | 955.6$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Aurora | 73c | 935.16$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.85 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Heroic | 8c | 877.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Heroic | 26c | 860.04$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Aurora | 75c | 788.99$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.25 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04b…f09bbacked Aurora | 79c | 752.72$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.32 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora | 74c | 713.36$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.47 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…a704backed Heroic | 16c | 704.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic | 26c | 689.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked Heroic | 14c | 677.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Aurora | 73c | 671.99$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.03 | 591 | 54%319 W · 272 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Heroic | 14c | 663.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 79c | 657.64$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Heroic | 12c | 614.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 583 | 46.3%270 W · 313 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Aurora | 75c | 562.01$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.44 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…189bbacked Aurora | 75c | 529.01$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Aurora | 77c | 528.02$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…d93abacked Heroic | 11c | 519.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Heroic | 6c | 507.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Heroic | 26c | 500.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.03 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…fc4fbacked Heroic | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Heroic | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25c…1b21backed Heroic | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc762…8970backed Heroic | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked Heroic | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Heroic | 16c | 498.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Heroic | 26c | 479.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Heroic | 7c | 454.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 15c | 444.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…8c50backed Aurora | 73c | 441.86$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…fd05backed Heroic | 28c | 437.39$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…dfc7backed Heroic | 11c | 400.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Heroic | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Heroic | 10c | 399.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…60babacked Aurora | 74c | 399.08$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f3…1cc4backed Heroic | 26c | 385.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Heroic | 26c | 382.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed Heroic | 10c | 379.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Heroic | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Aurora | 79c | 359.83$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Heroic | 16c | 351.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked Heroic | 9c | 330.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Heroic | 27c | 330.38$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 535 | 33.8%181 W · 354 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…9476backed Heroic | 29c | 330.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc937…273bbacked Heroic | 21c | 323.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 90 | 36.7%33 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…38c4backed Heroic | 26c | 297.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.