Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13dfeef745594b1d6a8d973661aa0c3bed5d24186d3fe662276cc5516dbfa3c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,005,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $996,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,005,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora | 66c | 365,285$242,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122,941.41 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Heroic | 33c | 217,327$71,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,787.76 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Heroic | 25c | 49,904$12,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,580.57 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Heroic | 35c | 39,653$13,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,869.96 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora | 58c | 32,690$18,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,862.45 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed Aurora | 65c | 29,959$19,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,485.51 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 65c | 28,489$18,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,879.97 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Heroic | 33c | 23,660$7,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,807.9 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Heroic | 37c | 22,901$8,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,522.01 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Heroic | 35c | 22,776$7,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,969.53 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 32c | 20,043$6,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,414.14 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora | 66c | 20,017$13,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,806.18 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Heroic | 34c | 20,008$6,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,755.95 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Heroic | 36c | 18,185$6,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,572.55 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 63c | 17,763$11,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,577.48 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Heroic | 3c | 17,661$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.39 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Aurora | 63c | 17,307$10,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,461.14 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Heroic | 25c | 16,459$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,038.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Heroic | 33c | 14,390$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800.09 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Heroic | 29c | 12,666$3,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,717.72 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed Heroic | 38c | 11,929$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic | 39c | 11,869$4,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.14 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Heroic | 34c | 11,224$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790.76 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…3351backed Heroic | 0c | 10,576$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic | 37c | 10,408$3,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,841.23 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Heroic | 42c | 10,105$4,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,218.96 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora | 66c | 10,064$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.84 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Aurora | 65c | 10,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Heroic | 10c | 9,866$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.49 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Heroic | 34c | 9,678$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.2 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Heroic | 38c | 9,293$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,488.12 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Heroic | 30c | 8,706$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.84 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heroic | 34c | 8,600$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.94 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Heroic | 34c | 8,558$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.6 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Heroic | 7c | 8,435$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.7 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…a981backed Aurora | 69c | 7,131$4,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.22 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Aurora | 62c | 6,520$4,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.45 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…4cfabacked Heroic | 3c | 6,476$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Aurora | 65c | 6,416$4,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.43 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Heroic | 36c | 6,322$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.89 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…2a26backed Aurora | 65c | 6,218$4,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.47 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Heroic | 2c | 6,002$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Aurora | 66c | 5,992$3,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.74 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Heroic | 2c | 5,474$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Heroic | 16c | 5,007$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.69 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Heroic | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Heroic | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 64c | 4,863$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.57 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Heroic | 35c | 4,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Aurora | 65c | 3,929$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.98 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…efeebacked Heroic | 2c | 3,830$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…cae6backed Aurora | 67c | 3,529$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.48 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…a7a8backed Heroic | 36c | 3,500$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Heroic | 41c | 3,462$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.76 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic | 47c | 3,440$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.65 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Heroic | 37c | 3,328$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.4 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Heroic | 34c | 3,169$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.48 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 71c | 3,076$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.48 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Heroic | 39c | 3,035$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.54 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Aurora | 65c | 2,977$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.58 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Heroic | 41c | 2,932$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.59 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed Heroic | 5c | 2,921$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Heroic | 38c | 2,887$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.04 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Heroic | 33c | 2,849$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.13 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 54c | 2,798$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.24 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Heroic | 35c | 2,735$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.29 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…554bbacked Heroic | 37c | 2,641$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.23 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Heroic | 37c | 2,612$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.1 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Heroic | 31c | 2,600$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.99 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked Heroic | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 145 | 15.2%22 W · 123 L | -16.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Heroic | 46c | 2,454$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.69 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 69c | 2,382$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.15 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 59c | 2,378$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.98 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Heroic | 33c | 2,254$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.85 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 64c | 2,000$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Heroic | 36c | 2,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Aurora | 74c | 1,997$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.31 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Heroic | 30c | 1,906$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.41 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Heroic | 5c | 1,884$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Heroic | 44c | 1,842$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.66 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 70c | 1,699$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.54 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked Heroic | 30c | 1,676$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.07 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Heroic | 34c | 1,614$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.65 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Heroic | 31c | 1,604$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.28 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,567$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.68 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…a704backed Heroic | 5c | 1,564$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic | 4c | 1,532$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Aurora | 66c | 1,468$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Heroic | 35c | 1,442$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.53 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Heroic | 7c | 1,436$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Heroic | 35c | 1,424$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.85 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…54c4backed Heroic | 37c | 1,405$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.58 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…beeebacked Heroic | 35c | 1,375$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.43 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…3bb6backed Heroic | 36c | 1,336$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.8 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 36c | 1,332$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic | 17c | 1,279$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.58 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 66c | 1,277$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.98 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Aurora | 69c | 1,250$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Aurora | 68c | 1,188$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.28 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.