TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$703,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$850,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $703,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 484 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Heroic38c44,178$16,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,624.6540051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Heroic26c32,709$8,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,577.7871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora67c22,061$14,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,360.641,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c16…a981backed Aurora66c20,965$13,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,133.021872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Aurora64c19,575$12,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,959.8818351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora66c17,354$11,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,900.2333746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora80c15,263$12,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.185757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora62c14,099$8,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,304.0996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora80c13,419$10,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.8321650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Aurora67c12,363$8,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,123.449055.6%50 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Heroic30c11,853$3,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,533.9948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Heroic34c11,082$3,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,767.896852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Heroic35c11,076$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,836.8415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic33c10,490$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.2489440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Heroic50c8,888$4,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,414.1227143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heroic36c8,468$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,006.3996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e2…d154backed Aurora66c7,919$5,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.153842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora64c7,564$4,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.9128748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Aurora67c7,497$5,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.0724153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Heroic36c7,450$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,681.998749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Heroic41c7,055$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.1318356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Heroic39c7,034$2,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,708.4350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Heroic35c6,731$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.8322848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic34c6,420$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.811,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Heroic33c6,306$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora45c6,047$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.741,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Heroic25c6,013$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.9155147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Heroic21c5,366$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.8641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora66c5,319$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.4425248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora64c4,969$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.2656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Aurora65c4,910$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.3934544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Aurora69c4,875$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.2610236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Heroic33c4,719$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.7150347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Heroic30c4,579$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.6247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Aurora71c4,497$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.2810262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Aurora66c4,485$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.7429348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Aurora70c4,207$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.646569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora76c4,098$3,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.7151364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked Heroic34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3601747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Heroic40c3,960$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.3348843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora68c3,893$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.981,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora66c3,828$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.5727153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora49c3,702$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.389741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Heroic34c3,323$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.819657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora65c3,311$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.7942650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Heroic2c3,255$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2340014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Aurora64c3,236$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.8122842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Heroic35c3,203$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.0550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Heroic55c3,198$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.9525446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora52c3,099$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora66c3,000$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Heroic32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Heroic35c2,998$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.9412350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Heroic20c2,900$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.9616547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Heroic22c2,740$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.0747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Heroic35c2,718$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.1726843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Heroic34c2,652$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.0643049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Heroic49c2,592$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.9235062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora60c2,565$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.145046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Heroic34c2,440$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.5580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…ee32backed Aurora70c2,431$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.525070%35 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora59c2,283$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.841,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora66c2,130$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.1988539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Heroic37c2,092$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.7460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Aurora53c2,013$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.866053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Heroic26c2,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Heroic35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic46c1,992$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.5660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Heroic24c1,963$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.1425143.4%109 W · 142 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic41c1,958$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.111,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf117…c44ebacked Heroic72c1,946$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.523740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic23c1,930$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.351,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x709c…ce30backed Heroic38c1,738$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.981758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Aurora66c1,738$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.9115950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf445…703ebacked Aurora32c1,726$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Heroic24c1,716$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.9412454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked Heroic3c1,700$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Aurora36c1,667$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.2125147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Aurora59c1,665$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.165168.6%35 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Heroic27c1,665$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.991,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Aurora57c1,652$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.263540%14 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Aurora66c1,649$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.6661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Heroic34c1,627$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.3116541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Aurora66c1,600$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5444365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed Aurora62c1,580$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.813036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Heroic33c1,566$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.9733845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic63c1,551$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.847750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Heroic33c1,535$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.119444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora9c1,517$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.8137811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Aurora66c1,506$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.1141351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Heroic36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54058744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Aurora71c1,486$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.612466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Heroic35c1,469$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.247935.4%28 W · 51 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aurora67c1,463$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.799630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Heroic35c1,414$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.998042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Heroic35c1,397$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.0532652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Aurora71c1,373$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.950769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Aurora65c1,361$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.4635951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Heroic32c1,343$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.0336547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.