Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2e5ef2a281e17db8c02edb3d11bf7f07e67382622469a6ee7e47a586541ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $703,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $850,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $703,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 484 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Heroic | 38c | 44,178$16,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,624.65 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Heroic | 26c | 32,709$8,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,577.78 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 67c | 22,061$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,360.64 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…a981backed Aurora | 66c | 20,965$13,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,133.02 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…f3b5backed Aurora | 64c | 19,575$12,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,959.88 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 66c | 17,354$11,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,900.23 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Aurora | 80c | 15,263$12,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.18 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 62c | 14,099$8,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,304.09 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 80c | 13,419$10,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.83 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed Aurora | 67c | 12,363$8,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.44 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Heroic | 30c | 11,853$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,533.99 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…1485backed Heroic | 34c | 11,082$3,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,767.89 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Heroic | 35c | 11,076$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,836.84 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 33c | 10,490$3,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,460.24 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Heroic | 50c | 8,888$4,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,414.12 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heroic | 36c | 8,468$3,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,006.39 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…d154backed Aurora | 66c | 7,919$5,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora | 64c | 7,564$4,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.91 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…b814backed Aurora | 67c | 7,497$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.07 | 241 | 53.1%128 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Heroic | 36c | 7,450$2,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.99 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Heroic | 41c | 7,055$2,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.13 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Heroic | 39c | 7,034$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,708.43 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Heroic | 35c | 6,731$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.83 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic | 34c | 6,420$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.81 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Heroic | 33c | 6,306$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 45c | 6,047$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304.74 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Heroic | 25c | 6,013$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.91 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Heroic | 21c | 5,366$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.86 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora | 66c | 5,319$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.44 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 64c | 4,969$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.26 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Aurora | 65c | 4,910$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.39 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Aurora | 69c | 4,875$3,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.26 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Heroic | 33c | 4,719$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.71 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Heroic | 30c | 4,579$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.62 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9031…554bbacked Aurora | 71c | 4,497$3,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.28 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Aurora | 66c | 4,485$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.74 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Aurora | 70c | 4,207$2,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.64 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Aurora | 76c | 4,098$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.71 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…1b0dbacked Heroic | 34c | 4,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Heroic | 40c | 3,960$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.33 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 68c | 3,893$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.98 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Aurora | 66c | 3,828$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.57 | 271 | 53.5%145 W · 126 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 49c | 3,702$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.3 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Heroic | 34c | 3,323$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.81 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 65c | 3,311$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.79 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Heroic | 2c | 3,255$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 64c | 3,236$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.81 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Heroic | 35c | 3,203$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.05 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Heroic | 55c | 3,198$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.95 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 52c | 3,099$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.9 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 66c | 3,000$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.5 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Heroic | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…e7d0backed Heroic | 35c | 2,998$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.94 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked Heroic | 20c | 2,900$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.96 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Heroic | 22c | 2,740$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.07 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Heroic | 35c | 2,718$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.17 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Heroic | 34c | 2,652$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.06 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Heroic | 49c | 2,592$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.92 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 60c | 2,565$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.1 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Heroic | 34c | 2,440$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.55 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…ee32backed Aurora | 70c | 2,431$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.52 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 59c | 2,283$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.84 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora | 66c | 2,130$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.19 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Heroic | 37c | 2,092$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.74 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Aurora | 53c | 2,013$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.86 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Heroic | 26c | 2,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Heroic | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic | 46c | 1,992$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.56 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Heroic | 24c | 1,963$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.14 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic | 41c | 1,958$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.11 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…c44ebacked Heroic | 72c | 1,946$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.52 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic | 23c | 1,930$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.35 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…ce30backed Heroic | 38c | 1,738$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Aurora | 66c | 1,738$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.91 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…703ebacked Aurora | 32c | 1,726$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Heroic | 24c | 1,716$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.94 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Heroic | 3c | 1,700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Aurora | 36c | 1,667$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.21 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd408…e85cbacked Aurora | 59c | 1,665$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.16 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Heroic | 27c | 1,665$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.99 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed Aurora | 57c | 1,652$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.26 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 66c | 1,649$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.66 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Heroic | 34c | 1,627$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.31 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…2a26backed Aurora | 66c | 1,600$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…cdb1backed Aurora | 62c | 1,580$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.81 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Heroic | 33c | 1,566$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.97 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic | 63c | 1,551$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.84 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Heroic | 33c | 1,535$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.11 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Aurora | 9c | 1,517$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.81 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Aurora | 66c | 1,506$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.11 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Heroic | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…885abacked Aurora | 71c | 1,486$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.61 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Heroic | 35c | 1,469$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.24 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aurora | 67c | 1,463$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.79 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Heroic | 35c | 1,414$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Heroic | 35c | 1,397$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.05 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Aurora | 71c | 1,373$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.9 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…510bbacked Aurora | 65c | 1,361$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.46 | 359 | 51.3%184 W · 175 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Heroic | 32c | 1,343$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.03 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.