Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67f2979e2947b858dc1dfb2f7b9ca84d35c87557ed05cd354b6e9a286e25f1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7645…3117backed Heroic | 55c | 5,997$3,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,298.32 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed Aurora | 45c | 5,611$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Aurora | 44c | 5,333$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Heroic | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.01 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…e694backed Aurora | 51c | 2,189$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.57 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…1feebacked Heroic | 58c | 1,574$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Heroic | 48c | 1,454$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.11 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic | 52c | 1,407$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.96 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Heroic | 56c | 1,321$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.81 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Heroic | 56c | 1,076$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.55 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 47c | 1,034$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.56 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…6d62backed Heroic | 56c | 662.05$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Heroic | 34c | 652.55$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…5e07backed Aurora | 44c | 572.11$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 77c | 524.16$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Heroic | 55c | 510.84$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.85 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Aurora | 44c | 498.22$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.62 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aurora | 39c | 425.87$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.78 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Heroic | 60c | 385.6$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.39 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Heroic | 56c | 364.91$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Heroic | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 41c | 283.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Aurora | 44c | 241.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…3af9backed Aurora | 45c | 219.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Aurora | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Heroic | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Aurora | 45c | 199.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Heroic | 50c | 156.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…9ef7backed Aurora | 44c | 109.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Aurora | 45c | 107.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Heroic | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 51c | 94.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Aurora | 45c | 92.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic | 52c | 89.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…e2e8backed Aurora | 44c | 88.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…6b52backed Heroic | 60c | 85.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Aurora | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Heroic | 27c | 69.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Aurora | 39c | 64.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Aurora | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 40c | 44.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Heroic | 36c | 42.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Heroic | 56c | 42.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora | 40c | 41.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…74f7backed Heroic | 57c | 40.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Heroic | 61c | 39.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Heroic | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8740backed Aurora | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Heroic | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Heroic | 58c | 29.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Aurora | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Aurora | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Aurora | 67c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Aurora | 76c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.