Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa05a0fc0157888abe7843cea0156e76b7fc8bfd2c89039925e8626101a8c8513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Under | 56c | 3,822$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.84 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Over | 44c | 1,388$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Over | 44c | 1,181$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.71 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Over | 44c | 848.9$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Over | 44c | 848.9$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 38c | 783.53$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.45 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 42c | 530.86$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.96 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Over | 47c | 517.12$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.02 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 73c | 491.39$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…8462backed Under | 67c | 384.02$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Over | 33c | 343.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Over | 32c | 193.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…6450backed Over | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Over | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over | 42c | 104.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Over | 35c | 102.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 54c | 101.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…eafabacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Under | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 55c | 97.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…cce4backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a1fbbacked Under | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0f32backed Under | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 65.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Over | 30c | 55.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Over | 30c | 52.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Under | 58c | 48.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 40c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785d…4e88backed Under | 68c | 39.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 38.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…6dbbbacked Under | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 45c | 32.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 61c | 30.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 57c | 29.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 43c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 62c | 24.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…929abacked Under | 53c | 23.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Over | 64c | 20.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.