TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$321,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$310,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5db1…ef84backed Yes0c14,424$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab82…a0dcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c28…9278backed Yes0c7,981$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Yes59c6,592$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,898.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74bf…2e8cbacked Yes24c6,093$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes13c5,323$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked No57c5,289$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes14c5,221$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes0c5,084$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes43c3,793$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes44c3,756$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.814626.1%12 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes48c3,288$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccaf…3363backed Yes15c3,128$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No62c3,113$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.261968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+55.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb196…bedabacked Yes44c2,905$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce04…163ebacked Yes30c2,741$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd42…a3fabacked Yes9c2,728$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Yes7c2,675$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes60c2,667$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No37c2,527$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.256943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes62c2,461$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.675759.6%34 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No79c2,211$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf3…b1babacked Yes59c2,182$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…07fbbacked Yes73c2,060$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes34c2,042$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.482119%4 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa596…8d92backed No44c2,011$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+165.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06dd…af8bbacked No59c1,935$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed No53c1,931$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes17c1,913$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No57c1,810$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…a1e7backed No38c1,809$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes21c1,758$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.132433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5867…575fbacked Yes2c1,740$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…a7f4backed No38c1,455$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+87.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a99…35eabacked Yes17c1,426$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes15c1,415$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe19f…6c6cbacked Yes65c1,350$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f82…076fbacked Yes59c1,344$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa9…6dcbbacked Yes33c1,340$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked Yes5c1,328$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No60c1,283$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.311225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a3…8362backed Yes24c1,245$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed Yes37c1,212$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes29c1,185$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4576…c032backed Yes2c1,166$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No60c1,159$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.554938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ee…1391backed No47c1,144$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae3c…f407backed Yes46c1,127$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d98…180dbacked Yes60c1,100$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No44c1,078$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.044751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No53c1,045$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.151346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No16c1,035$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.492437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed No53c1,032$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes33c1,025$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x043f…d9e1backed Yes61c999.72$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No51c995.32$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.124732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed No25c985.18$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Yes72c981.1$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No77c980$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a1…2f95backed No13c971.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+680.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07c…bbb0backed No42c959.68$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4250…7c65backed Yes43c953.67$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes63c920$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-55%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes56c810.36$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed No80c808.27$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.063847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes47c785$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.9540%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed No75c774.04$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed Yes47c770$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes47c760$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked No74c754.46$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7ed7backed No54c742.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302a…74e6backed Yes71c730.21$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes14c711.08$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.291225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes23c701.75$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed No49c700$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3552100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82fd…deb1backed Yes17c690$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe684…be27backed No15c663.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+560.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cbd…5864backed Yes60c663$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad59…cb41backed No43c660.96$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb462…fc89backed Yes7c643.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc7…2c7dbacked No53c640.57$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed No44c637.22$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcc…bb85backed No34c617.42$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f2…eb95backed Yes52c605.24$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No35c602.49$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.197844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed Yes34c599.42$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed No42c596.26$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.87540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes70c563.49$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.782544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Yes58c551$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No42c537$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.46650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked Yes23c524.41$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…7861backed No42c518$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x638d…56ffbacked Yes65c516.39$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No67c514.96$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-50.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes58c504$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes26c500.53$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2a…13b0backed No40c500.15$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed No74c500.04$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Yes57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.