TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8556…fad9backed Yes41c5,681$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c4,735$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.913228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes1c4,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,337$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.854629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb28…3750backed Yes38c4,317$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c4,237$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes1c4,028$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-78.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No56c3,415$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.231050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes13c3,315$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.241915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No50c2,947$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+139%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes17c2,571$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d75…4651backed No65c2,234$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes37c2,204$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes1c2,095$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.49120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e7…045abacked No53c1,216$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes41c1,208$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes3c1,196$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb582…3097backed Yes1c1,176$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8d…6f61backed Yes1c1,163$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceaf…1e49backed Yes12c1,132$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3644…671abacked Yes29c1,074$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c1,021$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.395311.3%6 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked No80c917.15$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c908.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.45414.9%2 W · 39 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-45.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6bab…d82cbacked No49c822.55$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3db…1959backed No57c782.81$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c766.38$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2116334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d2…60f5backed Yes9c753$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No79c736.63$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.052934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes41c720$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.62040%8 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1973…2c9bbacked Yes50c719.68$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…bad8backed Yes1c718.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes14c700$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.422839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No62c687.32$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.491520%3 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes4c671.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c5…4302backed Yes36c615.19$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x529d…13c1backed No78c613.19$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4526…041abacked Yes33c603.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No50c602.02$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbf…9c71backed Yes36c560.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No58c560$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.81040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No56c554.24$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.87844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…4da2backed No54c534.78$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…57cebacked Yes2c533.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb8…1050backed Yes3c510.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes45c500.84$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3365.6%2 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…abccbacked No53c471.18$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+126.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe21…65e5backed No60c448.57$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ee…aebebacked Yes4c446.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c410$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7673%2 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+69.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c338.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.510517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa90e…30efbacked Yes17c328.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes6c322.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No55c318.84$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.842524%6 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d8…1319backed No56c317.01$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f43…154abacked Yes7c307.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c302.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8339116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No65c300$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Yes47c299.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed No66c290$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed No56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.862951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9c…0f66backed Yes12c249.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ed3…9916backed Yes9c247.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No60c246.41$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.72759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x817e…d5ebbacked Yes52c245$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c7…77b2backed Yes26c231.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e0…9412backed No68c227.75$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.625554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ad…a1a1backed Yes59c225.23$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8818…4f5abacked No54c224.07$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9837…8bf8backed Yes13c215$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6adb…cf88backed No72c214.34$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…ede8backed No47c210.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb3…0a63backed Yes5c207.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No48c205.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.455054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb6…d56ebacked Yes32c205.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No12c201.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7c…6d05backed No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x438e…e08ebacked Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+71.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfafb…27eabacked Yes47c200$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0e…5ee5backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e2…1056backed Yes9c192.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9961…f081backed Yes48c180.45$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5497…bc3bbacked No53c177.95$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db2…c78ebacked Yes49c173$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x688e…fcc7backed Yes48c173$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes58c171.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f33…bebcbacked Yes33c170.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b7…d0e2backed Yes49c168.58$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes9c165.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa53d…9710backed Yes31c159.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73ed…2574backed No63c158.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes15c155.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…5a97backed No54c149.43$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0d…0d85backed Yes34c146.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.