TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,912,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,516,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,912,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 443 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes0c2,999,999$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes0c2,966,568$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.57100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc87…de14backed Yes0c1,002,700$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c734,175$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.17244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c728,692$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,594.54320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb4…3214backed Yes0c700,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c678,734$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.77280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c400,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa4…9350backed Yes0c390,728$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c1…b742backed Yes0c324,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf932…b09bbacked Yes0c317,490$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c302,254$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.95523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x959d…fe29backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked Yes0c258,273$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c257,310$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.34190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3837…fbb3backed Yes0c221,073$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.07100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes0c212,623$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36a…cf88backed Yes0c206,000$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes0c200,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c180,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb2…fedbbacked Yes0c159,950$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Yes0c140,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3385…fc58backed Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes0c122,030$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.21258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes0c111,409$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.41100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes0c109,732$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b65…791abacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…0b20backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4019…5898backed Yes0c96,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…cad0backed Yes0c89,469$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6d…a212backed Yes0c72,424$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9236…8ccdbacked Yes0c67,109$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c65,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed Yes0c64,754$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1880%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed13…e733backed Yes1c64,680$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes1c61,075$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.31216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01b…c933backed Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c93…d649backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca00…e4c4backed Yes0c59,664$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5854…8835backed Yes0c58,886$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes0c58,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes0c55,500$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c55,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175310%0 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…0298backed Yes0c53,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe257…3392backed Yes0c50,480$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c50,355$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.37352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ad…2879backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x369a…fbbfbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5572…984ebacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f1…9626backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5217…836fbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes3c48,477$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.76137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd273…7aecbacked Yes0c48,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ef…c62ebacked Yes1c44,920$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfef2…d60abacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea34…43dabacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed Yes0c38,333$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc428…79eebacked Yes0c38,330$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.33140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ee…590ebacked Yes0c38,020$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes0c37,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0139…be95backed Yes0c36,610$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16c…bc02backed Yes0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f3…adb4backed Yes1c34,035$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f3…108bbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c31,999$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.99525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402f…7d67backed Yes1c31,223$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61b…ade8backed Yes0c30,275$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce59…eb51backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x485c…3373backed Yes1c30,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b0…5c38backed Yes0c29,200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b1…5cbabacked Yes0c29,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4e…f04abacked Yes0c27,110$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc5…0bc0backed Yes0c26,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…f268backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb988…3a35backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fe…d4a5backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a3…41cbbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa92…fbb0backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801c…ab3bbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x333b…cf0dbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c70…8511backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes1c24,502$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.692412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133b…258cbacked Yes0c24,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes1c24,061$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.64340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094b…65c8backed Yes0c23,610$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e0…decbbacked Yes0c22,412$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63d…8188backed Yes0c22,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c17…b267backed Yes0c22,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed4…01ccbacked Yes0c21,720$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes3c21,566$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7309…4967backed Yes0c21,230$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f32…b3dfbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf672…e55abacked Yes1c21,000$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2abd…f959backed Yes1c20,810$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x987a…a94abacked Yes0c20,008$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x181a…fff6backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ab…92fabacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.