TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,564,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,878,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,564,379 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 714 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes0c4,870,029$16,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,350.16100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c2,477,357$10,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,130.66352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e36…4390backed Yes0c1,511,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c1,098,201$6,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,384.91523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c904,831$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,646.8310420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes0c753,584$3,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.9380%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c599,999$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3708…171fbacked Yes0c509,636$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,954.7440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b0…5c38backed Yes0c507,300$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9710…353abacked Yes0c457,611$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes1c456,624$3,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,228.85280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4019…5898backed Yes0c400,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c381,123$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.4190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f63…f01dbacked Yes0c333,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c310,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4102910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes0c289,027$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.95128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-89.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…3480backed Yes2c256,999$4,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,347.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa4…9350backed Yes0c240,823$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16c…bc02backed Yes0c238,993$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3497…e9babacked Yes0c170,900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf2…0367backed Yes0c169,243$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f49…9e47backed Yes0c166,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772b…edd5backed Yes0c155,400$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.7100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5714…eb29backed Yes0c150,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes2c128,440$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.048924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4a…97ddbacked Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfffe…1df7backed Yes0c124,875$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes1c117,165$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.991020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e7…440abacked Yes0c102,733$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f77…0ba9backed Yes0c91,558$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes1c80,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes0c78,365$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.09224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes0c78,333$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-66%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes8c77,131$6,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,294.991735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x987a…a94abacked Yes0c75,000$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes0c72,750$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf976…c073backed Yes0c72,000$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f36…c6d2backed Yes0c68,773$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes1c68,057$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes1c61,605$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.54820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b6…02c7backed Yes1c60,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes1c59,764$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.931931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3f…ba66backed Yes0c58,440$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7e…8003backed Yes0c57,717$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af6…9508backed Yes0c56,683$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.37333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes0c55,443$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a8…a65bbacked Yes6c55,113$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,251.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce1…bfc9backed Yes0c54,640$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed Yes0c54,500$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc165…480dbacked Yes0c53,143$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Yes1c50,200$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes1c50,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf80d…b383backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3c…dd96backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d6…81ecbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…d649backed Yes0c49,213$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes0c47,667$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14980%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x287e…72ccbacked Yes0c46,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c45,000$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.42303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c45,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180310%0 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…6232backed Yes1c40,028$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c2…5cc4backed Yes1c40,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x557d…962fbacked Yes0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes1c38,518$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa84e…a97cbacked Yes1c37,680$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.92130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…f4b1backed Yes0c37,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3385…fc58backed Yes1c36,890$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes1c36,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes1c35,801$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.44180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bd…bcbebacked Yes0c35,667$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f7…e8d6backed Yes1c35,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bd…d079backed Yes0c34,671$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.35100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fa…c693backed Yes0c34,613$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6616…2bf9backed Yes0c33,563$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes3c33,336$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eae…39cdbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9dd…da00backed Yes1c33,333$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a1b…e1e3backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes4c33,320$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.212010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe21…2b7bbacked Yes0c31,667$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c31,133$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.78960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes2c30,965$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4911910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d4…ad3cbacked Yes2c30,833$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3e5…6010backed Yes1c30,400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab1…0a97backed Yes1c30,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d2…b5c4backed Yes1c30,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd150…264fbacked Yes5c29,800$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3855…0cb1backed Yes0c29,667$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4e…f04abacked Yes0c29,188$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd61…e364backed Yes0c28,750$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e14…3980backed Yes1c28,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes6c27,860$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.892934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes1c26,730$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes0c26,680$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.36258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3adc…1e5fbacked Yes0c25,283$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959d…fe29backed Yes1c25,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…f268backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4019…1453backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.