TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,347,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,334,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,347,675 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,829 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes2c947,992$18,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,841.772725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c641,464$11,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,519.87523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa275…c758backed Yes2c501,428$10,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,072.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked Yes2c498,565$11,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,381.65119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c423,215$12,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,205.9410420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf63b…0806backed Yes8c404,322$31,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,914.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes4c397,713$15,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,951.8258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes3c389,720$12,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,948.38352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes8c384,889$30,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,080.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked Yes3c355,054$9,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,575.451338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes2c353,181$6,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,138.772321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes2c319,055$5,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,686.41100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes4c281,200$10,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,897.91303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes2c260,797$4,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,932.293043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa4…9350backed Yes3c237,398$7,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,401.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x275e…4ed0backed Yes2c229,912$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes2c217,877$4,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,776.59128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-89.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes21c200,526$41,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,444.894820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes3c170,510$4,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,606.854415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes6c159,939$9,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,795.1580%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa4a…97ddbacked Yes1c153,772$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287e…72ccbacked Yes1c150,214$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3c…dd96backed Yes2c147,458$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,032.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c3…0f3dbacked Yes2c132,543$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,96610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…2736backed Yes3c131,636$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,463.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes2c129,914$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.26100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes51c128,585$65,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,913.371735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5714…eb29backed Yes1c127,856$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b6…02c7backed Yes4c126,737$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.81140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes1c124,637$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes6c113,529$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,269.853525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes1c110,562$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.51283.6%1 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4019…1453backed Yes4c107,954$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,884.67520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes2c101,837$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.76345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c8…b79abacked Yes2c99,724$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f9…2551backed Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed Yes2c95,881$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca6…04f8backed Yes5c95,475$4,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,89430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96da…2c38backed Yes10c92,938$9,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,453.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3427…7977backed Yes11c92,866$10,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,007.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59e…7181backed Yes2c91,640$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes3c91,552$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,148.112917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed Yes2c90,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes3c88,943$2,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,805.3290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes1c87,802$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.8360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c6…01c0backed Yes4c85,559$3,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335.35616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c2f…f472backed Yes2c84,337$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes2c84,041$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.683423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes2c82,500$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4b…5724backed Yes1c81,123$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.47425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked Yes1c81,055$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes4c79,747$3,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.122213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes3c75,000$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.043315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa642…309fbacked No45c74,100$33,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,7551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffa4…1f7fbacked Yes55c74,100$40,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,75510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c15…8033backed Yes1c70,983$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d6…81ecbacked Yes1c66,274$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes2c65,000$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1651513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes2c63,739$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c93…d649backed Yes1c63,079$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3385…fc58backed Yes3c62,978$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes12c61,618$7,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,324.211414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fb…4a25backed Yes2c61,364$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe257…3392backed Yes2c58,634$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d82…672dbacked Yes3c56,110$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa857…6dd9backed Yes2c55,751$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed Yes10c53,000$5,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,420.04303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes2c50,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes1c50,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e68…32a1backed Yes1c49,054$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fc…30f5backed Yes2c48,714$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes5c48,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5502123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes1c47,500$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes9c46,273$3,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968.061931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f63…f01dbacked Yes2c45,959$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db0…0e1dbacked Yes1c44,789$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed Yes2c43,335$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc3…03a2backed Yes4c43,038$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3497…e9babacked Yes2c42,791$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes2c42,369$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes52c42,334$22,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,114.932934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d83…c7c8backed Yes50c41,576$20,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,78810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x130a…b35abacked No50c41,576$20,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,7881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Yes3c40,917$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c38,970$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.29960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9985…72aabacked Yes1c38,540$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.7470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes11c37,291$4,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.811921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4343…7114backed Yes1c37,152$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c35,366$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5545…f481backed Yes2c35,289$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038f…ba58backed Yes2c34,553$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f36…c6d2backed Yes4c34,476$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be2…d69cbacked Yes4c33,380$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb25…b674backed Yes4c32,844$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f49…9e47backed Yes2c32,224$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes3c30,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes1c30,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9613…18b8backed Yes2c30,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Yes12c30,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes2c29,900$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.21010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.