TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,071,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,394,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,071,373 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed No2c940,739$22,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,245.48258%2 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No2c684,125$14,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,075.34130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No2c553,955$10,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,145.9523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed No2c369,839$8,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,692.82714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf63b…0806backed No12c366,801$44,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,704.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x753f…b52bbacked No2c292,717$5,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.0180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No3c269,000$6,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,828.09303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9921…6258backed No2c177,480$4,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,138.4950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b0…1f0abacked No4c174,093$6,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c07…5214backed No5c162,859$7,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,354.1380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed No4c161,684$6,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,686.15352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e6…4a5fbacked No2c156,212$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,550.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No2c138,715$3,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,177.92100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No2c138,000$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,61110420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…a2a5backed Yes60c131,866$78,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,174.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb66…3103backed Yes42c120,833$50,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,166.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e7a…565dbacked No3c117,574$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b69…98eabacked No4c114,426$4,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,261.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed No2c113,702$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked No2c111,553$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.89100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d4…1798backed No2c104,230$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x959d…fe29backed No2c101,804$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5aa…3fb9backed Yes38c85,803$32,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,197.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908f…7e43backed No62c85,783$53,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,185.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f60…bbccbacked No1c75,027$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked No1c73,529$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.1670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9225…9a5bbacked No2c71,388$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed No13c70,452$9,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked No9c65,300$6,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,16850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16c…bc02backed No2c63,983$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed No2c61,036$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.78137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-85.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes39c58,643$22,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,786.151735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e7…5872backed No2c56,732$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5d7fbacked No1c54,689$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No6c53,774$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,340.322213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked No3c50,730$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.211338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed No2c50,041$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.44100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f75…0ac6backed No2c49,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…54edbacked No3c48,271$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed No12c47,732$5,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,684.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked No4c45,341$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f36…c6d2backed No2c42,104$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ef…f8e9backed No2c40,862$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5545…f481backed No3c40,527$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed No2c40,145$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked No2c39,089$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.15180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31f…0e79backed No1c38,403$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c38,195$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.55960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec2…d3a5backed No2c37,102$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.7890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No3c36,500$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.52416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c9…45e9backed No4c36,169$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No9c35,503$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,340.083525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71da…a4aebacked No0c35,370$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No3c33,758$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.633423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x450d…a3d4backed No3c33,343$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a6d…5676backed No3c33,270$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a28…da50backed No3c32,894$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.5960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2be…2995backed No1c32,001$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No10c31,595$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.612931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9710…353abacked No1c31,011$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed No3c30,426$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.5190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ea4…2e1ebacked No4c30,282$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes61c29,678$18,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,531.298132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d2…59f6backed No3c29,284$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No40c28,726$11,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,383.831241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f3…108bbacked No3c27,262$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3726…8f92backed No4c27,054$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11d…8e79backed No2c26,066$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.7930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed No4c24,205$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed No2c23,960$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeea…ca3fbacked No2c23,459$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb669…322cbacked No3c23,091$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1275…499bbacked No2c21,964$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c00…026fbacked No2c21,483$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed No17c20,934$3,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,558.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked No7c20,328$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No12c20,000$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.861435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Yes65c20,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,000333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3779…0f80backed No10c20,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0532…0a3abacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x451a…9745backed No2c19,933$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5380…501bbacked No3c19,643$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726c…8221backed Yes69c19,622$13,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,146.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c9…6f01backed Yes72c19,432$13,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,440.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c1…c6d5backed No3c19,078$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde54…473abacked No2c19,013$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5867…b135backed No3c18,649$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e15…b5eabacked No3c18,514$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14f…a357backed No2c18,495$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No61c17,800$10,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,798.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed53…bbb4backed No2c17,521$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No14c16,962$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.956717.9%12 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66fd…01e6backed No3c16,852$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.0480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ac…3baabacked No2c16,518$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked No2c16,441$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74fb…9b64backed No1c15,622$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67d…0d83backed No1c15,308$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f07…e4c7backed No1c15,215$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe24…5089backed No3c15,153$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ff…ed95backed No1c15,014$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.