Weather · resolved market
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd71e7b8c5c3f7cd1fc025002b2982aae1e5f70a65bf1faaae121299127537b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $684,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $594,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6b2…c3f8backed Yes | 2c | 105,050$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 40,564$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.07 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 0c | 26,486$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 23,640$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.97 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…a463backed Yes | 1c | 9,795$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…57eabacked Yes | 1c | 7,989$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7317…c5a9backed Yes | 2c | 4,658$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…645ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,435$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…687cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,096$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,901$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736a…26f0backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…c9d2backed Yes | 3c | 3,448$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,413$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…35a2backed Yes | 2c | 3,363$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4e…cf75backed Yes | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,331$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +306%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,211$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…287cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,173$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +407.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d902backed Yes | 1c | 3,116$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…c819backed Yes | 2c | 3,100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d1…b57bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2423…91b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,997$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 2c | 2,700$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed Yes | 3c | 2,613$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,542$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…0902backed Yes | 2c | 2,439$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…a310backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…febbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,391$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,355$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…e369backed Yes | 2c | 2,342$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,299$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,281$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…16dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed Yes | 1c | 2,020$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…e66ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +351%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…6420backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,886$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…f711backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…ded8backed Yes | 1c | 1,728$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 2c | 1,578$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,562$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…377fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…273ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +306.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,491$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,487$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,428$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…0244backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…5645backed Yes | 3c | 1,382$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…6c4abacked Yes | 4c | 1,372$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 1c | 1,357$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…c225backed Yes | 2c | 1,338$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…8a4abacked Yes | 3c | 1,288$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…1b46backed Yes | 3c | 1,282$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…8b54backed Yes | 2c | 1,264$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…df80backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f3…feadbacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…3d43backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…24e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,192$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed Yes | 2c | 1,191$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…b217backed Yes | 2c | 1,083$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +640.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…55f4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…ca4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…0addbacked Yes | 2c | 939$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 2c | 853.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…d265backed Yes | 2c | 851.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…2a23backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…a8c1backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8a…405cbacked Yes | 3c | 799.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9b…0e6cbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…2b28backed Yes | 2c | 702.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…bd7ebacked Yes | 3c | 691.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…5db2backed Yes | 2c | 679.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…1cc8backed Yes | 2c | 667.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…676ebacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3611…6880backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…6b87backed Yes | 3c | 658$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a41…2c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 641.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…fdbabacked Yes | 6c | 638.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed Yes | 2c | 633.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 2c | 602.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…4807backed Yes | 3c | 565.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…4793backed Yes | 2c | 564.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…7d1fbacked Yes | 2c | 553.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…4f68backed Yes | 3c | 542.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed Yes | 2c | 537.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…0853backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.