Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 27-October 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9233fe6628a1aa25492294ab5774bcd18ad6accc00d883da620b27559f32c11d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,447$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,344$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 8c | 694.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 14c | 622.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 423.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 15c | 393.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 16c | 381.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 7c | 332$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 78c | 257.37$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 8c | 243.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…0d3cbacked Yes | 11c | 233.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed Yes | 21c | 223.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 75c | 170$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 9c | 111.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…c745backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…f0c3backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 77c | 40.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 27-October 4?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 27-October 4?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 27-October 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.