Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 27-October 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9e51232da4cf845160db326c042b63f1e9b61a2b715a44de742275149f0c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 4c | 1,644$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 628.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 76c | 574.34$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.91 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 520.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 12c | 423.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 395.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 5c | 355.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 7c | 292.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 77c | 258$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 28c | 179.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 24c | 154.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 77c | 131.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 23c | 111.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…0f93backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…63d2backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 26c | 75.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…0d3cbacked Yes | 35c | 71.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7267…12afbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 62c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac9a…264cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 27-October 4?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 27-October 4?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 27-October 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.