Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 27-October 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe18843b0e316b35f4fb6b3b8017d5f0a5b84fc8289bde7c696550c1f3e628e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 76c | 832.42$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 29c | 438.89$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 24c | 434.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 357$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 351$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 31c | 323.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked No | 75c | 309.71$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 272.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 250.66$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 242.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 70c | 215.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 71c | 214.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 154.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…5d25backed No | 67c | 144$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 22c | 135.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 24c | 122.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 22c | 115.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 19c | 99.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 20c | 70.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked No | 73c | 59.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb6…df1cbacked Yes | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 75c | 53.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7267…12afbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…1856backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dea…d77abacked Yes | 30c | 49.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…22eebacked Yes | 30c | 48.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +338.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 27-October 4?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times September 27-October 4?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 40 or more times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 27-October 4?No won
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times September 27-October 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.