TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,840,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,758,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,840,781 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 842 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes0c6,170,743$14,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,786.7650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c1,685,050$4,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,235.61523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,379,383$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.38244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes0c1,200,789$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.79100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c07…5214backed Yes0c1,200,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7c…e3c9backed Yes0c1,126,830$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes0c996,709$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.4870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc307…862abacked Yes0c925,220$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c799,581$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.78205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd645…a047backed Yes0c636,533$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc83c…d5aabacked Yes0c598,200$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbabe…fe97backed Yes0c578,803$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c568,293$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bbc…8410backed Yes0c537,380$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f3…9561backed Yes0c525,259$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.9740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2b…c165backed Yes0c524,474$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f7…b274backed Yes0c504,309$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94f…9765backed Yes0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa855…2e9abacked Yes0c499,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c399,997$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb882…5e2fbacked Yes0c368,890$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes0c356,287$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.72224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes0c278,036$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c41…0a18backed Yes0c262,126$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b9…d297backed Yes1c244,391$1,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c209,714$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.71525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d9…ad02backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b1e…f4a8backed Yes0c199,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad9…bf77backed Yes0c194,440$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb366…dfecbacked Yes0c175,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8380…96d5backed Yes1c174,361$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ed…b9b6backed Yes0c160,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0943…a3a8backed Yes1c152,881$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes0c141,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60c…04a5backed Yes0c140,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d4…4892backed Yes1c137,263$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e15…deeabacked Yes1c136,430$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd152…f201backed Yes1c127,489$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e0…5fd9backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…5425backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3c…efd5backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f1…dde5backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…b653backed Yes1c99,808$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efa…4c92backed Yes0c86,410$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9601…c773backed Yes1c79,367$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c84…69c8backed Yes0c78,620$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c76,038$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.35034%17 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c70,267$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.11280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes0c69,117$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.88100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e0…3cd2backed Yes0c68,494$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d3…aaacbacked Yes0c65,297$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8879…56aabacked Yes0c65,247$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd38…7c52backed Yes0c63,847$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051e…a698backed Yes0c63,500$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ea…0c5ebacked Yes0c62,847$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c75…801ebacked Yes0c62,727$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579d…c69dbacked Yes0c62,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad0…b185backed Yes0c61,997$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7192…ab00backed Yes0c59,997$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a1…1d02backed Yes0c58,000$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…d2a5backed Yes0c57,747$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5229…01efbacked Yes0c57,575$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf554…9a12backed Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29b…011dbacked Yes0c55,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3979…f49ebacked Yes0c54,800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9b…7dccbacked Yes0c54,747$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ba…0c90backed Yes0c54,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6bb…112fbacked Yes0c52,956$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1e…8a9bbacked Yes0c52,860$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2c37backed Yes0c52,714$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d87…4fcbbacked Yes0c52,615$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b7…cc14backed Yes0c52,605$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…a0febacked Yes0c52,590$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1692…b90fbacked Yes0c52,497$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c7…391ebacked Yes0c52,187$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17f…80efbacked Yes0c52,088$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f55…cd13backed Yes0c52,088$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd70…58ccbacked Yes0c52,001$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f7…928ebacked Yes0c51,979$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd11…852bbacked Yes0c51,910$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ced…e425backed Yes0c51,822$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f23…cda8backed Yes0c51,671$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d4…fa78backed Yes0c51,363$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bbb…1c5abacked Yes0c51,359$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb72…e9f3backed Yes0c51,330$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951b…bbdcbacked Yes0c51,247$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe850…bfe2backed Yes0c51,163$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb8…1aa5backed Yes0c51,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159e…705dbacked Yes0c50,989$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237a…3640backed Yes0c50,875$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea9…7d58backed Yes0c50,832$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…5c0fbacked Yes0c50,638$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd116…4180backed Yes0c50,535$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c3…e0a1backed Yes0c50,516$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac31…404fbacked Yes0c50,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22df…cd9dbacked Yes0c50,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef7…27b0backed Yes0c50,375$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e5…ce38backed Yes0c50,275$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-79.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.