Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64123306a517e078fa636231a9cc9339a46bcfe3fadf62c92fdb031881c5d0d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,840,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,758,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,840,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 842 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 0c | 6,170,743$14,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,786.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 1,685,050$4,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235.61 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 1,379,383$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.38 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 1,200,789$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed Yes | 0c | 1,200,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…e3c9backed Yes | 0c | 1,126,830$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 996,709$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…862abacked Yes | 0c | 925,220$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 799,581$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,579.78 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a047backed Yes | 0c | 636,533$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc83c…d5aabacked Yes | 0c | 598,200$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…fe97backed Yes | 0c | 578,803$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 568,293$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbc…8410backed Yes | 0c | 537,380$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…9561backed Yes | 0c | 525,259$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…c165backed Yes | 0c | 524,474$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…b274backed Yes | 0c | 504,309$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…9765backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa855…2e9abacked Yes | 0c | 499,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 0c | 399,997$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…5e2fbacked Yes | 0c | 368,890$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 0c | 356,287$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.72 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes | 0c | 278,036$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…0a18backed Yes | 0c | 262,126$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…d297backed Yes | 1c | 244,391$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 209,714$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.71 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…ad02backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…f4a8backed Yes | 0c | 199,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…bf77backed Yes | 0c | 194,440$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb366…dfecbacked Yes | 0c | 175,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…96d5backed Yes | 1c | 174,361$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ed…b9b6backed Yes | 0c | 160,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…a3a8backed Yes | 1c | 152,881$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 0c | 141,667$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…04a5backed Yes | 0c | 140,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d4…4892backed Yes | 1c | 137,263$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 136,430$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…f201backed Yes | 1c | 127,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e0…5fd9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…5425backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…efd5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…b653backed Yes | 1c | 99,808$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…4c92backed Yes | 0c | 86,410$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…c773backed Yes | 1c | 79,367$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c84…69c8backed Yes | 0c | 78,620$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 76,038$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.3 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 70,267$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 69,117$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e0…3cd2backed Yes | 0c | 68,494$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…aaacbacked Yes | 0c | 65,297$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8879…56aabacked Yes | 0c | 65,247$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…7c52backed Yes | 0c | 63,847$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051e…a698backed Yes | 0c | 63,500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…0c5ebacked Yes | 0c | 62,847$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…801ebacked Yes | 0c | 62,727$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…c69dbacked Yes | 0c | 62,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad0…b185backed Yes | 0c | 61,997$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…ab00backed Yes | 0c | 59,997$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…1d02backed Yes | 0c | 58,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…d2a5backed Yes | 0c | 57,747$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5229…01efbacked Yes | 0c | 57,575$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf554…9a12backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…011dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked Yes | 0c | 54,800$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…7dccbacked Yes | 0c | 54,747$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ba…0c90backed Yes | 0c | 54,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bb…112fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,956$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…8a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 52,860$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2c37backed Yes | 0c | 52,714$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…4fcbbacked Yes | 0c | 52,615$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b7…cc14backed Yes | 0c | 52,605$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…a0febacked Yes | 0c | 52,590$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1692…b90fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,497$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…391ebacked Yes | 0c | 52,187$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…80efbacked Yes | 0c | 52,088$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…cd13backed Yes | 0c | 52,088$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…58ccbacked Yes | 0c | 52,001$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…928ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,979$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd11…852bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,910$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ced…e425backed Yes | 0c | 51,822$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…cda8backed Yes | 0c | 51,671$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…fa78backed Yes | 0c | 51,363$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…1c5abacked Yes | 0c | 51,359$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb72…e9f3backed Yes | 0c | 51,330$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951b…bbdcbacked Yes | 0c | 51,247$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe850…bfe2backed Yes | 0c | 51,163$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…1aa5backed Yes | 0c | 51,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…705dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,989$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237a…3640backed Yes | 0c | 50,875$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea9…7d58backed Yes | 0c | 50,832$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…5c0fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,638$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…4180backed Yes | 0c | 50,535$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…e0a1backed Yes | 0c | 50,516$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…404fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…cd9dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…27b0backed Yes | 0c | 50,375$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…ce38backed Yes | 0c | 50,275$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.