Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e07c6085d96ecc1ac7568d6cb640f09e4d300a25afc763b67f15d8f2c8597c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,978,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,683,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,978,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 4,431,619$4,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 3,780,997$7,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,398.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,042,077$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389.48 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 0c | 1,661,741$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…c96abacked Yes | 0c | 1,441,727$2,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 1,412,653$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.26 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 1,086,730$4,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,211.18 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 499,899$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…1143backed Yes | 0c | 499,501$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 0c | 450,100$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.1 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8665…9c42backed Yes | 1c | 410,898$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…f29cbacked Yes | 1c | 373,509$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…f324backed Yes | 1c | 309,404$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…6e09backed Yes | 0c | 303,661$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…f808backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 255,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…be15backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…05a9backed Yes | 0c | 249,181$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…4601backed Yes | 0c | 248,997$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 248,055$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.22 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 0c | 218,816$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…1541backed Yes | 1c | 215,876$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…9f4fbacked Yes | 0c | 211,795$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…e67abacked Yes | 1c | 206,400$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…a3f7backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…b5debacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…c1eebacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b8…80b3backed Yes | 1c | 199,436$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…4335backed Yes | 0c | 165,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…110bbacked Yes | 1c | 162,955$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9f…5b06backed Yes | 0c | 162,440$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cef…5a61backed Yes | 0c | 162,299$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 0c | 160,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…185fbacked Yes | 0c | 157,050$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8539…5813backed Yes | 1c | 154,050$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ab…66adbacked Yes | 2c | 153,572$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…50cfbacked Yes | 1c | 150,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…3708backed Yes | 0c | 149,108$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…3b48backed Yes | 0c | 140,333$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…7a57backed Yes | 0c | 135,272$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…9574backed Yes | 0c | 125,001$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 0c | 120,237$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked Yes | 0c | 114,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…78cabacked Yes | 1c | 106,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…1b5bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…9609backed Yes | 0c | 99,929$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…9aeebacked Yes | 1c | 99,585$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…4121backed Yes | 1c | 95,398$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…883fbacked Yes | 0c | 94,770$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…e08cbacked Yes | 1c | 88,150$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…9561backed Yes | 0c | 86,213$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…303ebacked Yes | 1c | 85,444$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…e02fbacked Yes | 0c | 84,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…7e27backed Yes | 0c | 82,501$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8983…c472backed Yes | 1c | 80,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2f…ce13backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…9997backed Yes | 0c | 79,465$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6800…35d9backed Yes | 0c | 76,001$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…ae1bbacked Yes | 0c | 74,980$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 0c | 74,600$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…ee93backed Yes | 0c | 68,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf315…021dbacked Yes | 0c | 67,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…b612backed Yes | 0c | 67,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a9…bf55backed Yes | 0c | 67,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc072…5d02backed Yes | 0c | 65,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…bf64backed Yes | 1c | 64,935$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…382cbacked Yes | 1c | 63,819$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 0c | 63,700$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1d…8929backed Yes | 1c | 62,540$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0334…2c11backed Yes | 0c | 62,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad5…0598backed Yes | 0c | 62,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…0867backed Yes | 0c | 61,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…100bbacked Yes | 0c | 61,415$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa90…8503backed Yes | 0c | 60,500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21a…83aebacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…a60abacked Yes | 0c | 59,996$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…5facbacked Yes | 0c | 59,980$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…de6dbacked Yes | 0c | 59,750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb030…4f1cbacked Yes | 1c | 59,400$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…d468backed Yes | 1c | 58,820$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Yes | 0c | 58,019$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…0aa5backed Yes | 0c | 57,278$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab2…0480backed Yes | 0c | 57,051$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…66d1backed Yes | 0c | 57,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…3710backed Yes | 1c | 56,216$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404b…77fbbacked Yes | 0c | 56,205$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…63bbbacked Yes | 0c | 54,501$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…03debacked Yes | 0c | 54,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…ba48backed Yes | 0c | 54,410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 54,022$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.