TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,033,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,927,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,033,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf359…3473backed No3c589,101$16,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,940.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd63…2ae5backed No3c409,085$12,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,565.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No7c272,869$20,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,300.821414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…ed07backed No2c265,725$4,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,861.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287e…72ccbacked No2c248,272$5,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,770.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764a…46a7backed No2c208,777$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.1290%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked No1c169,242$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.73120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bae…b5debacked No2c167,290$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked No2c159,695$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed No2c157,835$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bc…06b7backed No2c145,822$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa595…3fdebacked No2c132,729$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.9980%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No3c118,741$3,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,773.79100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa160…db85backed No2c111,351$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked No1c107,022$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.8790%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…8ac8backed No2c102,500$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e0…5fd9backed No1c99,463$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No3c99,055$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.086412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7e…c1eebacked No2c92,150$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b11…723bbacked No1c87,537$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked No2c86,762$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a07…025cbacked No1c77,542$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d09…2a56backed No1c75,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939f…dcd1backed No2c73,591$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1513…5208backed No3c65,476$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f1…dde5backed No2c64,762$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e60…5f95backed No2c64,608$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.68100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde05…1ababacked No3c57,818$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed No1c56,836$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.56110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc1…bdbebacked No2c53,754$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.5550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c12…c273backed No2c53,661$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed No1c50,898$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.37110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed No2c50,282$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e8…b4b2backed No2c50,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed No1c47,339$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.0990%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ef…bf64backed No2c46,993$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0f…4758backed No2c44,552$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…796bbacked No2c43,851$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a7…89cbbacked No2c40,416$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dc…37a7backed No1c39,857$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.52425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81d2…ff5fbacked No2c39,485$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e64…2190backed No2c38,163$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db8…168bbacked No4c35,707$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f7…f84bbacked No1c34,546$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda63…b0f6backed No2c31,371$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1e…08f2backed No3c31,197$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No3c30,001$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.0110420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No1c28,150$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.452611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db3…1468backed No1c28,011$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No5c27,559$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e0…f68abacked No2c26,888$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.25100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed No2c26,800$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.1680%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No2c26,482$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.1170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1a…354fbacked Yes79c26,305$20,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,448.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35b9…c5d0backed No2c25,628$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362d…8cb0backed No1c25,278$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…25d5backed No2c24,876$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No2c24,436$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.543312.1%4 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No5c24,324$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.078132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No4c23,649$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.792512%3 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb2…dfddbacked No2c23,433$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x530e…46c5backed No2c23,282$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.53128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-87.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2849…b477backed No3c23,083$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d9…6530backed No2c22,895$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe8…555abacked No2c22,250$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.3160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x043b…abedbacked No2c21,688$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No1c21,072$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.61225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No0c21,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…86a8backed No2c20,880$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b9…6baebacked No1c20,643$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x632d…8b4fbacked No2c20,042$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked No1c20,000$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.86150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked No2c20,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fc…5809backed No2c19,270$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fda…1b7abacked No2c18,950$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2f…4335backed No1c17,934$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbff…36ddbacked No3c17,835$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f0…bdd3backed No2c17,794$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.64170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…4c92backed No2c16,737$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No52c15,988$8,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,322.366421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ef…2c77backed No2c15,670$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd501…b83fbacked No2c15,658$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd729…6b09backed No1c15,206$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes59c15,175$9,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,164.325127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes69c14,616$10,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,575.731145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65eb…e197backed No2c13,830$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb85b…ebc9backed No2c13,760$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3823…ee1ebacked No3c13,137$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No2c12,984$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.78238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4e…a18ebacked No2c12,743$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed No2c12,387$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a94…79e8backed No2c12,346$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e54…44fdbacked No4c12,038$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c11,403$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9385.3%2 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67a…eb69backed No2c11,318$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed No1c11,026$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe61…4665backed No2c11,000$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bba…d969backed No1c10,716$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a93…ecf9backed No2c10,560$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.23742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf645…0d16backed No6c10,500$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.