Fed Rates · resolved market
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e0f29885709d63bfcff29e80f4a8df1da9e97906ba9e21577b46a70858d8e06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,033,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,927,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,033,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf359…3473backed No | 3c | 589,101$16,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,940.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd63…2ae5backed No | 3c | 409,085$12,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,565.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 7c | 272,869$20,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,300.82 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…ed07backed No | 2c | 265,725$4,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,861.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287e…72ccbacked No | 2c | 248,272$5,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,770.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…46a7backed No | 2c | 208,777$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked No | 1c | 169,242$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…b5debacked No | 2c | 167,290$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,608.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…7ffbbacked No | 2c | 159,695$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…6e34backed No | 2c | 157,835$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bc…06b7backed No | 2c | 145,822$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked No | 2c | 132,729$2,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 3c | 118,741$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,773.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…db85backed No | 2c | 111,351$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked No | 1c | 107,022$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…8ac8backed No | 2c | 102,500$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e0…5fd9backed No | 1c | 99,463$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 99,055$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.08 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…c1eebacked No | 2c | 92,150$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…723bbacked No | 1c | 87,537$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked No | 2c | 86,762$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…025cbacked No | 1c | 77,542$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…2a56backed No | 1c | 75,000$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…dcd1backed No | 2c | 73,591$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed No | 3c | 65,476$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed No | 2c | 64,762$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed No | 2c | 64,608$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.68 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…1ababacked No | 3c | 57,818$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed No | 1c | 56,836$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…bdbebacked No | 2c | 53,754$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…c273backed No | 2c | 53,661$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed No | 1c | 50,898$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed No | 2c | 50,282$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…b4b2backed No | 2c | 50,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 1c | 47,339$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…bf64backed No | 2c | 46,993$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…4758backed No | 2c | 44,552$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…796bbacked No | 2c | 43,851$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a7…89cbbacked No | 2c | 40,416$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72dc…37a7backed No | 1c | 39,857$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d2…ff5fbacked No | 2c | 39,485$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…2190backed No | 2c | 38,163$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…168bbacked No | 4c | 35,707$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…f84bbacked No | 1c | 34,546$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b0f6backed No | 2c | 31,371$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…08f2backed No | 3c | 31,197$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 30,001$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.01 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 1c | 28,150$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…1468backed No | 1c | 28,011$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 5c | 27,559$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…f68abacked No | 2c | 26,888$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…1a14backed No | 2c | 26,800$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 2c | 26,482$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.1 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…354fbacked Yes | 79c | 26,305$20,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,448.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…c5d0backed No | 2c | 25,628$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…8cb0backed No | 1c | 25,278$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed No | 2c | 24,876$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 2c | 24,436$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.54 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 5c | 24,324$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.07 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 4c | 23,649$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.79 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb2…dfddbacked No | 2c | 23,433$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…46c5backed No | 2c | 23,282$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b477backed No | 3c | 23,083$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…6530backed No | 2c | 22,895$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…555abacked No | 2c | 22,250$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043b…abedbacked No | 2c | 21,688$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 1c | 21,072$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 21,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…86a8backed No | 2c | 20,880$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…6baebacked No | 1c | 20,643$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…8b4fbacked No | 2c | 20,042$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked No | 1c | 20,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.86 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked No | 2c | 20,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…5809backed No | 2c | 19,270$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…1b7abacked No | 2c | 18,950$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…4335backed No | 1c | 17,934$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…36ddbacked No | 3c | 17,835$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed No | 2c | 17,794$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.64 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…4c92backed No | 2c | 16,737$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 52c | 15,988$8,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,322.36 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed No | 2c | 15,670$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…b83fbacked No | 2c | 15,658$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…6b09backed No | 1c | 15,206$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 59c | 15,175$9,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,164.32 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 69c | 14,616$10,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,575.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed No | 2c | 13,830$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…ebc9backed No | 2c | 13,760$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…ee1ebacked No | 3c | 13,137$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 2c | 12,984$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.78 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked No | 2c | 12,743$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed No | 2c | 12,387$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…79e8backed No | 2c | 12,346$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…44fdbacked No | 4c | 12,038$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 11,403$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.9 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed No | 2c | 11,318$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed No | 1c | 11,026$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed No | 2c | 11,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…d969backed No | 1c | 10,716$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…ecf9backed No | 2c | 10,560$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed No | 6c | 10,500$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.