TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7e60…5f95

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 53 out of 100; worst Movies at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.5
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.31
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.85
Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.12
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.4
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.6
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+933.6%+$140.04
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+146.6%+$93.94
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+216.2%+$135.12
Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+42.9%+$9
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+426.3%+$81
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$17
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2025, EST1513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+642.9%+$112.5
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11.46
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$85
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$66.63
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+532.9%+$84.2
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30.9
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$32
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.8
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.35
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$183
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$227.2
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,123.68
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$21.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.