Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7f530012324d66319236194307ae72b665d40f85e8f60c875dd86f8b3033df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 9,820$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.49 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 0c | 8,857$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 5c | 8,045$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 3c | 6,869$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.24 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 0c | 6,577$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,995$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.63 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 7c | 4,777$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.62 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 8c | 4,561$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 4,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,506$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…184bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…028cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 3c | 2,092$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…02ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,899$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…2ae0backed Yes | 5c | 1,859$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,750$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,706$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 5c | 1,607$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,590$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 5c | 1,397$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,054$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…f23abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 13c | 996$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…a555backed Yes | 7c | 694.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…c8cebacked Yes | 5c | 679.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…0d79backed Yes | 7c | 595.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed Yes | 6c | 552.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 5c | 508.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…bafcbacked Yes | 3c | 440$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…0027backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 5c | 378.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed Yes | 15c | 269.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…ebd2backed Yes | 5c | 200.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.