Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97a82b4cdfe9bcdafd2b3ba417428c379bb0d150f14093b7144de0adf163861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $404,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 25,087$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.16 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…1c6dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8fe3backed Yes | 14c | 20,757$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 12,013$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.59 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 11,036$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.2 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 8c | 8,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 7,182$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.52 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 6,208$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.76 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 5,982$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.08 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 7c | 5,137$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 5c | 5,044$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,947$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.09 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,868$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.45 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 4,689$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.31 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,395$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 15c | 3,700$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…72c2backed Yes | 15c | 2,732$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,700$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 2,567$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,513$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.69 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18a…4de5backed Yes | 2c | 2,465$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 11c | 2,442$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.38 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 2,340$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 2,161$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 2c | 1,840$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…6775backed Yes | 8c | 1,701$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 15c | 1,686$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 12c | 1,637$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…2ae0backed Yes | 6c | 1,585$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 13c | 1,359$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 13c | 1,323$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 7c | 1,188$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…c5c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 9c | 1,074$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,061$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 7c | 1,006$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…d33fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 999.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 15c | 880$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…460abacked Yes | 2c | 874.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 16c | 868.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 17c | 850$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 12c | 846.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 14c | 833.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…6dfebacked Yes | 13c | 776.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 12c | 718.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ca…070fbacked Yes | 9c | 716.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 13c | 706.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked Yes | 8c | 700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…fdfebacked Yes | 15c | 653.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes | 16c | 631.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 11c | 612.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…8e71backed Yes | 3c | 608.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 17c | 600$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 8c | 600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…f530backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b009backed Yes | 11c | 594.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 6c | 586.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes | 9c | 581.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…4abcbacked Yes | 10c | 572.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…c34ebacked Yes | 12c | 549.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc6…28b5backed Yes | 12c | 513.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b8acbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…a296backed Yes | 9c | 498.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 7c | 476.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 6c | 450.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 7c | 430.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…f01bbacked Yes | 5c | 408.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 13c | 387.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 10c | 385.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 7c | 372.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a2…c4c8backed Yes | 3c | 362.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…2af6backed Yes | 5c | 339.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…b1d3backed Yes | 13c | 324.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6defbacked Yes | 3c | 315.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995d…bd40backed Yes | 8c | 315.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…c48bbacked Yes | 12c | 315.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…685dbacked Yes | 12c | 313.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 17c | 273.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…c7b4backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 11c | 272.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 13c | 265.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…b00ebacked Yes | 4c | 260.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 9c | 255.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 181 | 18.8%34 W · 147 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes | 12c | 251.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…07ccbacked Yes | 8c | 251.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 8c | 240.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977f…0650backed Yes | 10c | 235.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.