Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb094d77714fa8f64902c7b2d0694a465cf447a732c822e303ca9915326a9351d

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $388,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $229,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,463 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	3c	19,295$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.52	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	15,426$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.38	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x165e…5db6backed Yes	0c	13,900$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…51babacked Yes	0c	13,653$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	16cpaid	+169.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98f5…7226backed Yes	11c	10,600$1,204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,204	65	20%13 W · 52 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	10,407$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	0c	10,004$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd77…b72cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed Yes	8c	6,500$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545	155	11.6%18 W · 137 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	3c	5,814$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.42	230	3.9%9 W · 221 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed Yes	1c	5,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	155	20.6%32 W · 123 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes	1c	4,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.44	93	8.6%8 W · 85 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	11c	3,996$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.57	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes	1c	3,450$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	72	9.7%7 W · 65 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	3c	3,289$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf15b…0934backed Yes	4c	3,000$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.52	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d92…4b39backed Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…131bbacked Yes	12c	3,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes	5c	2,769$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.1	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	6c	2,671$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.38	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes	5c	2,330$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.7	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef3c…8e97backed Yes	13c	2,299$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	62	17.7%11 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4112…b904backed Yes	11c	2,272$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e60…5f95backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	9c	1,818$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.85	123	11.4%14 W · 109 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-43%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb204…fcdbbacked Yes	11c	1,818$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3258…9e52backed Yes	10c	1,607$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.22	71	9.9%7 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9730…4504backed Yes	3c	1,545$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2e…2581backed Yes	9c	1,391$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	6c	1,384$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.31	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes	11c	1,360$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…b0b4backed Yes	12c	1,292$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x108f…73e3backed Yes	12c	1,265$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Yes	2c	1,244$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d77…869bbacked Yes	8c	1,200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes	9c	1,186$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.56	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d53…398bbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes	11c	892.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	9c	814.16$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.33	143	14.7%21 W · 122 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	5c	812.5$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	3c	753.23$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa1b…c8cebacked Yes	8c	691.9$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes	10c	674.41$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.57	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9943…4391backed Yes	8c	593.27$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a93…ecf9backed Yes	10c	560$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	+88.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b2…f617backed Yes	10c	510.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes	8c	500.01$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…591abacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9311…29c1backed Yes	14c	450$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	+60.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf0…a556backed Yes	7c	437.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…8f73backed Yes	7c	426.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	126	23%29 W · 97 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ec…685dbacked Yes	8c	417$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.36	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde82…95a7backed Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0040…5c25backed Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes	9c	350$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cb…20f3backed Yes	14c	338.29$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…c7b4backed Yes	9c	334.44$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x599d…f3cabacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4846…fd83backed Yes	15c	269.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6869…7dd2backed Yes	7c	228.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x185b…4b6abacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes	9c	220$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…e512backed Yes	10c	213$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfce6…9f5dbacked Yes	10c	212$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7036…b62ebacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…a296backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-63%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x485d…1d0cbacked Yes	10c	193.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d25…0027backed Yes	10c	165$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdcc…05f4backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be8…e00abacked Yes	9c	145$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	118	10.2%12 W · 106 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ba…2526backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-6.7wins	-0.20per pick	35cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9db5…151fbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa121…5123backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	181	18.8%34 W · 147 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9421…8747backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acd…d7e7backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe293…4087backed Yes	11c	92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event