Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x728da1e41ef928b553a6bfd5b94657cf3145849c06512e9a9e51b46bd38297e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 10,638$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.08 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6defbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 12c | 4,677$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.64 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 7c | 4,650$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,498$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,382$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,663$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 11c | 2,333$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 2,200$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 15c | 2,091$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 2,015$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…6775backed Yes | 10c | 1,966$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,748$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…0693backed Yes | 13c | 1,722$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 9c | 1,674$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 7c | 1,598$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 11c | 1,568$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 11c | 1,548$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b806backed Yes | 10c | 1,207$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…5d57backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…ec07backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c1…65a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…de3cbacked Yes | 11c | 800$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 9c | 788.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…72c2backed Yes | 3c | 757.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 10c | 688.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 4c | 669.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…a107backed Yes | 5c | 535.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…8bc1backed Yes | 2c | 528.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…9e23backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…f23abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…f617backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edf…edc6backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…29c1backed Yes | 15c | 450$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…685dbacked Yes | 12c | 417$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 5c | 413.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 337.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…f3cabacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…c7b4backed Yes | 11c | 281.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…a556backed Yes | 11c | 270.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed Yes | 15c | 264.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…ef89backed Yes | 4c | 263$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…1148backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Yes | 12c | 213$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…a296backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 12c | 186.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18a…4de5backed Yes | 12c | 185.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…1d0cbacked Yes | 13c | 179.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 168.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…bd03backed Yes | 10c | 145.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 10c | 131.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ab8cbacked Yes | 13c | 131.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…d82ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…327cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…e00abacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…329ebacked Yes | 11c | 116.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 12c | 100.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…7198backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…e74abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…ebc5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…5123backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.