Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf31354209369118b24e5d368326e47bf7dcf4eb97925fa72493c876173d6127f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,232$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 0c | 10,310$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,957$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 5c | 6,901$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 5,700$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,996$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.64 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 7c | 3,525$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,571$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 9c | 2,555$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.62 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 12c | 2,503$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 2c | 2,472$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,346$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 0c | 2,247$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 9c | 2,177$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.97 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 1c | 2,048$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,998$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,906$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,773$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,691$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…869bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 7c | 1,607$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…f23abacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,367$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…a6a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,201$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…699dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,168$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…1938backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 989.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 3c | 871.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 6c | 790.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…b4fabacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 7c | 409.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…0027backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 7c | 380$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…c8cebacked Yes | 10c | 366.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes | 6c | 329.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed Yes | 15c | 268$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 9c | 226.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa121…5123backed Yes | 7c | 221.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…a296backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…151fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977f…0650backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.