Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd6d272c9f10433c07bb8d6d306f881ee66633d5c7b87ffd5220835ffd5d4ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $844,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $858,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $844,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d81…be28backed No | 0c | 53,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…c5c7backed No | 4c | 44,920$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed No | 16c | 22,965$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,582.49 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 24c | 22,436$5,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,142.45 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed No | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…dac0backed No | 1c | 13,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 21c | 12,806$2,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,170.93 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 52c | 9,349$4,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,526.64 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 8,984$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.52 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…92afbacked Yes | 62c | 7,213$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 22c | 6,956$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,448.39 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 55c | 6,727$3,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.77 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 21c | 6,346$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.47 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed No | 38c | 6,137$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked No | 1c | 5,733$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 68c | 5,705$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.98 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed No | 22c | 5,431$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.74 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 32c | 5,087$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,434.42 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 47c | 5,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.95 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 5c | 4,228$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…1df4backed No | 50c | 4,185$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 30c | 4,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 4,000$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.96 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…398bbacked Yes | 51c | 3,442$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 74c | 3,216$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.13 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 52c | 2,624$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.79 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 35c | 2,597$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.24 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked No | 31c | 2,450$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.81 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked No | 12c | 2,438$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 45c | 2,322$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.35 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 23c | 2,140$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.91 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed No | 34c | 2,089$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.41 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 49c | 2,032$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.72 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed Yes | 77c | 1,944$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 2c | 1,874$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 32c | 1,785$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.69 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 28c | 1,722$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.55 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 13c | 1,650$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed Yes | 75c | 1,597$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 21c | 1,583$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.72 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b806backed Yes | 38c | 1,512$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…c57ebacked No | 14c | 1,385$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…6768backed No | 74c | 1,383$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…9e23backed Yes | 65c | 1,363$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 13c | 1,295$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.64 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 39c | 1,262$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 61c | 1,258$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.15 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 39c | 1,181$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.92 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 21c | 1,140$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 36c | 1,026$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.62 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 50c | 1,023$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.01 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Yes | 76c | 999.97$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 52c | 999.89$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.95 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 56c | 999.07$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.48 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 28c | 958.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed Yes | 8c | 900$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed Yes | 48c | 899.99$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 69c | 815.47$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.94 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 17c | 807$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 15c | 805.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 56c | 793.09$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 38c | 789.48$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.36 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 61c | 777.61$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 30c | 744.86$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.62 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 35c | 732.3$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.49 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…fdfebacked Yes | 55c | 722.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 67c | 709.79$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 42c | 705.35$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed No | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 56c | 691.22$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.85 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6d…a13fbacked Yes | 76c | 659.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 8c | 652.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 46c | 623.08$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.15 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 79c | 611.24$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.36 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 13c | 609.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 606.61$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8eafbacked No | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 47c | 568.29$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.48 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…d455backed Yes | 29c | 538.24$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…b62ebacked Yes | 37c | 534.83$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.68 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 506.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…d42cbacked No | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…70afbacked No | 7c | 441.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 34c | 441.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2491backed No | 4c | 439.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked No | 23c | 436.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 45c | 434.97$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.23 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 50c | 429.1$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0d…ffb0backed No | 3c | 427.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes | 35c | 420.87$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 29c | 408.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.86 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…f37bbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.