Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c1a75c73b4b07dfacfc2a02ed52c9595139426088276edb46741e5d34ce1af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 4c | 12,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,022$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.45 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 5c | 8,456$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.37 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 4c | 7,874$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.39 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 4c | 7,469$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.61 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 1c | 6,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 7c | 5,025$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.56 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…028cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,995$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.61 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 1c | 4,220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc88…3696backed Yes | 7c | 3,617$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 0c | 3,525$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…184bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 3,427$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc087…f2aebacked Yes | 0c | 2,976$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 2,220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…f23abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,691$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 1c | 1,680$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,579$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 13c | 1,572$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 1,439$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,222$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…d653backed Yes | 5c | 917.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 6c | 896.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 834.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…5c25backed Yes | 5c | 800$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 7c | 650$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 6c | 612.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…af65backed Yes | 5c | 610$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…0027backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 5c | 570$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…151fbacked Yes | 3c | 546.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 6c | 449.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…e74abacked Yes | 4c | 444$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 4c | 442$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…bafcbacked Yes | 3c | 440$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 5c | 394.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 6c | 352.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 8c | 326.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b8acbacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 5c | 276.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…0d79backed Yes | 8c | 260.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…c34ebacked Yes | 5c | 233.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61aa…0208backed Yes | 5c | 201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf0…2089backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ab…5fb4backed Yes | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed Yes | 18c | 96.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.