TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,161,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,094,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,161,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa12…e785backed No1c416,379$4,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,881.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No1c313,721$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.42130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0704…1858backed Yes78c278,416$218,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,232.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60c3…9f87backed No1c258,323$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,982.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes74c248,844$184,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,500.261376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28cc…ed23backed No1c222,222$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No5c177,481$8,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,290.662429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No1c158,201$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.21523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed No3c141,950$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,097.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked No4c132,794$5,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,765.72911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-77.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c77…af46backed No1c125,001$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe084…93acbacked No1c111,638$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed No4c100,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No4c99,895$4,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,466.486412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde05…1ababacked No1c92,809$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed No1c79,160$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95f…ba57backed No1c78,139$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.9940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed No1c64,327$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a0…0e91backed No2c63,349$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No4c60,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed No14c59,700$8,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,651.99303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e1…3a26backed No1c59,408$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67d…0d83backed No1c54,984$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc97…0238backed No1c54,497$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea5…e29ebacked No1c48,979$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7957…d144backed No1c48,272$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x618c…0f4ebacked No6c47,878$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e22…d7e3backed No1c45,163$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.2870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…c3c4backed No1c44,579$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed No1c42,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No25c41,379$10,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,226.16825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930a…f1aebacked No1c39,500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No2c37,721$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No3c35,945$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.161216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-77.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec2…d3a5backed No1c34,891$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd856…a5afbacked No1c34,639$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes77c32,842$25,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,524.92030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e91…29e9backed No1c28,891$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.0240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7724backed No14c28,064$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,928.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80be…928fbacked No1c26,573$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c9…d561backed No2c26,366$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c25,500$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.91385.3%2 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…2ad1backed No1c25,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…b477backed No1c24,415$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No1c24,277$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe301…501fbacked No1c22,541$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8308…ed84backed No1c22,242$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0216…55b5backed No1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a4…c3ccbacked No1c19,961$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No5c19,000$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90610420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes69c18,981$13,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,944.751241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…2cc5backed Yes80c18,800$15,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,762.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No9c18,523$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.136829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f0…bdd3backed No2c18,258$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.22170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bba…d969backed No1c17,178$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No13c17,145$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.55100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…c2dbbacked No1c16,360$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Yes67c16,140$10,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,343.49988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b2a…25d5backed No3c15,659$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9e…c8b9backed No1c15,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c9…6f01backed Yes73c14,879$10,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,014.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726c…8221backed Yes71c14,716$10,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,195.14683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked No3c14,551$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2574…9189backed No1c14,342$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5737…87b4backed No1c14,003$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…7990backed No1c14,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c09…1432backed No7c13,323$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fda…bd72backed No3c13,187$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa595…3fdebacked No17c11,765$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa11a…ed58backed No1c11,759$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3c…1bc1backed No1c11,614$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cc…f51fbacked No1c11,465$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed No3c11,344$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+122.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe568…30edbacked No1c11,309$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1859…e7f8backed No1c11,266$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba2…18a5backed No6c11,238$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722f…c3a7backed No1c11,180$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…0e7abacked No1c11,120$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…1588backed No1c11,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…39bebacked No1c11,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707b…52d3backed No1c10,916$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes59c10,831$6,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.04714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-75.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab3c…0c79backed No1c10,781$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c33…c7f7backed No2c10,540$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.062010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1581…7ff5backed No1c10,506$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes76c10,407$7,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,521.272814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed No1c10,271$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb219…6b0fbacked No1c10,081$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f2c…8483backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf2…0300backed No2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed No5c10,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c53…34a2backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9a…7d45backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf827…f9ecbacked No7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No4c10,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed No1c9,978$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b7…05fbbacked No1c9,956$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfa…8342backed No1c9,900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa39…822ebacked No2c9,873$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.