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Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,544,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,740,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,544,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c3,080,833$7,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,396.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes0c2,999,998$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c1,699,897$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.832619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes0c1,363,717$6,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,168.8250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes0c616,667$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c550,195$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.75523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c490,676$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.372910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes0c333,286$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.78190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…718fbacked Yes1c327,440$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c277,839$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.88280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c270,730$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.92244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes0c252,217$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes1c231,237$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.3260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c222,587$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.892714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c213,125$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.24170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes0c208,000$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0216…55b5backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420e…404abacked Yes0c198,490$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Yes0c180,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b3…8cf7backed Yes0c179,120$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.5770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes1c160,007$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.04137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…e907backed Yes0c139,900$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24cb…532abacked Yes0c114,130$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd67…fb31backed Yes0c100,230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e91…29e9backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67d…0d83backed Yes0c99,660$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d9…9251backed Yes0c98,810$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes0c85,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd37…de9fbacked Yes0c79,670$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb72…68b8backed Yes0c77,467$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes1c76,675$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x549d…1ca0backed Yes0c72,170$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes1c66,466$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf672…e55abacked Yes1c61,253$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133b…258cbacked Yes0c61,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec49…5a1dbacked Yes0c60,530$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes1c57,250$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes2c54,962$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c54,000$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d68…6e66backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e1…3a26backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1a…a81cbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa95f…ba57backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afd…1161backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…c203backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d9…6a1fbacked Yes0c49,940$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x130e…f8ffbacked Yes2c49,899$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4429…d764backed Yes0c49,490$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes0c48,130$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.63128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-83.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010545.7%48 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53b0…1bbdbacked Yes1c40,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…5758backed Yes0c40,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed Yes2c38,724$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4866…b259backed Yes1c38,484$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes0c38,333$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes1c36,418$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.6270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc333…466fbacked Yes1c35,522$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb23…3797backed Yes0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…aeb1backed Yes1c33,723$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004a…f264backed Yes1c33,098$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edd…8309backed Yes1c31,342$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e65…a223backed Yes1c30,359$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes2c30,332$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.44160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a1…2542backed Yes1c29,806$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.2450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce64…8eccbacked Yes1c26,842$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e1b…3d5abacked Yes1c25,883$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f6…c962backed Yes0c25,655$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.31110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8b…0aeabacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2789…96a2backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa018…b738backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeded…e8e4backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f46…9136backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked Yes1c25,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5eb…e221backed Yes0c23,810$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9b…18efbacked Yes1c23,787$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb433…3ad5backed Yes0c22,570$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…ff7cbacked Yes1c21,180$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52e0…3186backed Yes0c20,810$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…e263backed Yes2c20,792$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7680%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfe…bfd8backed Yes0c20,563$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes1c20,179$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.16110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4883…ffb2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fc…db91backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a1…c652backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc940…6221backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f34…e683backed Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5637…06fabacked Yes1c19,538$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed Yes1c19,384$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…3b53backed Yes1c17,400$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57d…1538backed Yes1c17,384$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes2c17,000$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c15,439$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.39110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2173…28b1backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f83…1353backed Yes1c14,500$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes1c13,458$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.