Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed6da09683149b433aeb802bd8d3f78a6b6d8799fa75bd0d73c3f87c6b2b592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,180,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,482,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,180,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78fa…c637backed Yes | 2c | 958,459$16,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,363.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…2813backed Yes | 1c | 937,158$8,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,636.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 10c | 417,191$43,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,193.22 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 374,171$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.51 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes | 2c | 368,699$9,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,005.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…dd96backed Yes | 1c | 340,027$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…2a28backed Yes | 22c | 313,205$69,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,781.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 1c | 293,549$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 2c | 245,770$3,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,773.92 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d4…1798backed Yes | 1c | 220,099$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…25afbacked Yes | 1c | 209,279$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…774bbacked Yes | 1c | 169,658$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 1c | 117,928$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 1c | 116,873$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.07 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 105,239$3,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,359.42 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 105,124$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.72 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 1c | 103,500$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…c7d7backed Yes | 1c | 103,255$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 103,092$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.96 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…5e72backed Yes | 1c | 102,463$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 2c | 102,102$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…1e55backed Yes | 4c | 102,019$4,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,325.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 7c | 100,340$7,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,214.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0734…e1c6backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…0175backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…61d3backed Yes | 3c | 99,166$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 1c | 97,991$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.04 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d0…58a2backed Yes | 1c | 96,511$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…9381backed Yes | 2c | 88,191$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…1994backed Yes | 1c | 85,171$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…6f77backed Yes | 12c | 84,700$10,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,456.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…18efbacked Yes | 1c | 70,199$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…46a7backed Yes | 3c | 69,545$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef2…c385backed Yes | 14c | 67,873$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 3c | 66,563$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes | 6c | 64,067$4,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 21c | 62,759$13,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,224.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…0136backed Yes | 1c | 60,003$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…a5afbacked Yes | 2c | 57,122$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…41acbacked Yes | 1c | 56,246$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…2ad1backed Yes | 1c | 55,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…0a05backed Yes | 1c | 54,651$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…e90dbacked Yes | 5c | 54,444$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 4c | 53,504$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes | 4c | 52,844$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…7182backed Yes | 1c | 51,768$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 6c | 50,945$3,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…2221backed Yes | 0c | 50,143$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…d530backed Yes | 1c | 49,168$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…a76dbacked Yes | 1c | 47,679$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed Yes | 2c | 46,824$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…3267backed Yes | 1c | 45,302$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…6c26backed Yes | 2c | 45,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…a3a4backed Yes | 2c | 44,585$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 1c | 43,046$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 3c | 43,020$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.77 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…d144backed Yes | 1c | 42,896$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 6c | 41,557$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.68 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Yes | 4c | 40,700$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…02c7backed Yes | 1c | 40,391$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.88 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…d9abbacked Yes | 1c | 39,620$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 5c | 38,985$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.78 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 4c | 38,364$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…bab5backed Yes | 1c | 37,340$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa47…2924backed Yes | 1c | 37,089$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…b4b2backed Yes | 3c | 35,454$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed Yes | 15c | 35,127$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 2c | 34,597$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 2c | 34,411$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 1c | 34,300$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…a58ebacked Yes | 1c | 33,770$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…0f4ebacked Yes | 6c | 33,330$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…438fbacked Yes | 3c | 33,017$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…3af6backed Yes | 1c | 32,985$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…1c91backed Yes | 2c | 32,647$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes | 3c | 32,030$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 31,623$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fca…5b70backed Yes | 3c | 31,241$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6048…8513backed Yes | 1c | 30,615$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766c…12b3backed Yes | 4c | 29,560$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 1c | 28,371$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e0…3186backed Yes | 1c | 27,344$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2cb8backed Yes | 1c | 27,287$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 1c | 26,802$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…ba57backed Yes | 1c | 26,743$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025a…c4c6backed Yes | 1c | 26,381$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…d694backed Yes | 4c | 26,184$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…0c79backed Yes | 1c | 25,187$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Yes | 3c | 25,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…b263backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80be…928fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf72…cb3fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…ee2ebacked Yes | 1c | 24,960$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…59eabacked Yes | 1c | 24,265$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…04a5backed Yes | 2c | 23,961$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 11c | 23,921$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 9c | 23,815$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.37 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…adc3backed Yes | 1c | 23,265$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…74b2backed Yes | 2c | 23,156$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…13a2backed Yes | 2c | 23,017$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.