TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,180,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,482,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,180,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78fa…c637backed Yes2c958,459$16,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,363.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8c…2813backed Yes1c937,158$8,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,636.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes10c417,191$43,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,193.224820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c374,171$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.51523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes2c368,699$9,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,005.9100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3c…dd96backed Yes1c340,027$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,183.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes22c313,205$69,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,781.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes1c293,549$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes2c245,770$3,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,773.92345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d4…1798backed Yes1c220,099$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af6…25afbacked Yes1c209,279$2,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,750.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadc…774bbacked Yes1c169,658$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Yes1c117,928$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c116,873$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.078924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c105,239$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.426412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes2c105,124$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.722516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-70.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes1c103,500$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6092910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f4…c7d7backed Yes1c103,255$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c103,092$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.962714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda85…5e72backed Yes1c102,463$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed Yes2c102,102$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.5690%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…1e55backed Yes4c102,019$4,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,325.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes7c100,340$7,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,214.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0734…e1c6backed Yes1c100,000$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bf…61d3backed Yes3c99,166$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed Yes1c97,991$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.04190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d0…58a2backed Yes1c96,511$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf975…9381backed Yes2c88,191$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf383…1994backed Yes1c85,171$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0496…6f77backed Yes12c84,700$10,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,456.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7a9b…18efbacked Yes1c70,199$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764a…46a7backed Yes3c69,545$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.5490%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef2…c385backed Yes14c67,873$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd228…997bbacked Yes3c66,563$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes6c64,067$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,092.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes21c62,759$13,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,224.18825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…0136backed Yes1c60,003$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.0330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd856…a5afbacked Yes2c57,122$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b85…41acbacked Yes1c56,246$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…2ad1backed Yes1c55,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb404…0a05backed Yes1c54,651$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked Yes5c54,444$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.51911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-77.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes4c53,504$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.041136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes4c52,844$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0891931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes1c51,768$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes6c50,945$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,056.15100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd152…2221backed Yes0c50,143$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23950%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d38…d530backed Yes1c49,168$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38e…a76dbacked Yes1c47,679$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes2c46,824$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.02110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5123…3267backed Yes1c45,302$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…6c26backed Yes2c45,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d68…a3a4backed Yes2c44,585$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes1c43,046$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes3c43,020$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.77340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7957…d144backed Yes1c42,896$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes6c41,557$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.682123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Yes4c40,700$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b6…02c7backed Yes1c40,391$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.88140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58e…d9abbacked Yes1c39,620$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed Yes5c38,985$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.78303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes4c38,364$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.71425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee8…bab5backed Yes1c37,340$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa47…2924backed Yes1c37,089$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e8…b4b2backed Yes3c35,454$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e56…4199backed Yes15c35,127$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,250850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes2c34,597$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7791910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes2c34,411$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes1c34,300$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…a58ebacked Yes1c33,770$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x618c…0f4ebacked Yes6c33,330$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…438fbacked Yes3c33,017$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1d…3af6backed Yes1c32,985$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7d…1c91backed Yes2c32,647$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.08425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes3c32,030$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes2c31,623$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.861216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-77.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fca…5b70backed Yes3c31,241$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6048…8513backed Yes1c30,615$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.74714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x766c…12b3backed Yes4c29,560$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes1c28,371$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e0…3186backed Yes1c27,344$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711e…2cb8backed Yes1c27,287$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes1c26,802$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95f…ba57backed Yes1c26,743$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x025a…c4c6backed Yes1c26,381$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec4…d694backed Yes4c26,184$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-67.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3c…0c79backed Yes1c25,187$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes3c25,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474a…b263backed Yes2c25,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80be…928fbacked Yes1c25,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf72…cb3fbacked Yes1c25,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…ee2ebacked Yes1c24,960$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fab…59eabacked Yes1c24,265$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60c…04a5backed Yes2c23,961$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes11c23,921$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.271216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes9c23,815$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.372619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0096…adc3backed Yes1c23,265$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abd…74b2backed Yes2c23,156$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b8…13a2backed Yes2c23,017$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.