TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,150,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,879,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,150,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c1,514,402$4,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,572.762714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78fa…c637backed Yes1c956,858$4,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,832.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes1c829,997$4,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,979.9850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c731,795$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.392910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c678,681$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.832619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c636,379$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.5523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af6…25afbacked Yes0c504,382$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c503,987$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes0c491,115$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.78924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes1c480,502$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.02100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a0…0e91backed Yes1c465,696$4,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,846.170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c407,988$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.95244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f60…f159backed Yes1c368,895$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcadc…774bbacked Yes0c314,183$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd856…a5afbacked Yes1c312,357$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.0650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes1c246,816$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes1c238,653$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.12280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes1c202,015$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.9460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf827…f9ecbacked Yes1c193,833$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1158…7a63backed Yes2c172,797$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55f…c3d6backed Yes1c169,404$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5218…5c3abacked Yes0c165,855$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9b…18efbacked Yes0c165,685$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e69…1b2fbacked Yes1c163,414$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes1c159,599$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.45110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…2813backed Yes1c156,952$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f4…c7d7backed Yes2c156,313$2,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,811.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked Yes2c130,428$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-77.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80be…928fbacked Yes0c123,000$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b86…0311backed Yes1c112,004$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…f5eebacked Yes0c106,695$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c101,544$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.8345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e7…79a9backed Yes0c100,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b6…02c7backed Yes0c99,010$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.02140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22b…2c4fbacked Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60c…04a5backed Yes2c95,093$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.58100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes1c91,628$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.05185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-79%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…3267backed Yes0c83,605$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb7…f4c4backed Yes1c73,400$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f74…2314backed Yes2c71,407$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a6…bb90backed Yes0c70,500$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-72.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6f…6da8backed Yes0c69,000$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711e…2cb8backed Yes0c67,645$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c65,999$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.49525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa39…822ebacked Yes0c65,376$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes1c65,348$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3561910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes0c65,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes1c52,120$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.78100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes1c51,517$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.191612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cfb…a57ebacked Yes0c51,340$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes1c51,012$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.8870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1d…3af6backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x931f…0136backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9acb…d014backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b85…41acbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc923…4a9abacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7641…0089backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-71.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…5758backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x025a…c4c6backed Yes0c49,986$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…a58ebacked Yes1c48,503$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2173…28b1backed Yes0c48,464$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a1…2542backed Yes1c48,067$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433f…d223backed Yes0c47,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef4e…04ddbacked Yes1c47,195$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd73…5511backed Yes1c47,170$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…bd47backed Yes0c46,330$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1791…a359backed Yes1c46,158$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9e…c8b9backed Yes1c45,704$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes0c45,001$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdfb…f367backed Yes0c44,440$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18d…55e3backed Yes1c44,280$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb404…0a05backed Yes1c43,733$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5119…9f9fbacked Yes0c43,500$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764a…46a7backed Yes1c42,148$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x766c…12b3backed Yes1c41,979$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bb…aa47backed Yes0c41,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…aa35backed Yes1c40,629$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…2ad1backed Yes0c40,299$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e91…29e9backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9047…c4a6backed Yes0c39,755$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-71.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes1c38,717$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.41340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d85…8393backed Yes1c38,524$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0833…6480backed Yes1c38,432$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2644…46abbacked Yes0c38,333$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes3c38,330$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed Yes2c36,400$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes1c36,400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fca…5b70backed Yes1c34,418$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c34,400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1a…a81cbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ef…9cbabacked Yes1c33,107$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94df…4455backed Yes0c32,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1382…1175backed Yes0c32,387$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked Yes2c31,816$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-75.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc59…716bbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd782…9285backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eed…3b89backed Yes0c28,962$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4429…d764backed Yes0c28,730$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.