Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95ce9a2ae8d256a33ddc49f5412c5865b5bb4083b4b55c673b633071535ba08d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 5c | 32,000$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 4,645$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.33 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…bbf5backed Yes | 9c | 4,476$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,388$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 2,530$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,369$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 1,722$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.11 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,405$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 11c | 1,399$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,227$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 2c | 964$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 882.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 10c | 861$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 839$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 821$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 765.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 10c | 729$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 7c | 662.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 10c | 557$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 537.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 10c | 520.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 6c | 498.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 496.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 461.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…1d2abacked Yes | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 12c | 438.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 431.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 15c | 378.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 11c | 365.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 15c | 339.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…e4b8backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 10c | 275.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 18c | 274.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 16c | 249.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 214$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 172.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…a7d8backed Yes | 19c | 158.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 8c | 135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 20c | 100.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…5e85backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 17c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…5f72backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 76c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 23c | 78.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 60.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.