Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc93d1340579f8f992acb8233be8c8544baa6d9268f118112752b30c18cf78284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 4,437$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.32 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 1c | 3,477$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 14c | 3,305$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.24 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 8c | 2,571$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,261$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 2,028$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.87 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,464$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 1,387$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.85 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,168$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 29c | 1,056$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.19 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 19c | 1,056$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 27c | 1,003$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 2c | 939$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 938.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 23c | 918$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 790$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 764.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 19c | 589$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 11c | 537.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 20c | 529.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 78c | 510$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 11c | 474.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 465.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 430.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 33c | 412.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 17c | 400.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 16c | 400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 7c | 371$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 23c | 343.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 12c | 331.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 16c | 330.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 15c | 303.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 263.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…e532backed Yes | 40c | 250.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 9c | 214$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 30c | 164.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 26c | 159$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 21c | 155$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked No | 80c | 149.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 21c | 143.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 125.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…cfe0backed No | 80c | 92.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 33c | 87.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed Yes | 29c | 87.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 24c | 82.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4f…f54ebacked No | 65c | 77.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 73.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…6bafbacked Yes | 28c | 72.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…ac30backed Yes | 36c | 69.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 25c | 63.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 34c | 58.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…64a0backed No | 67c | 54.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 25c | 52.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…b41bbacked Yes | 21c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf0…e852backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b3ddbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…45f8backed Yes | 36c | 44.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 78c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed No | 70c | 32.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8291backed Yes | 38c | 31.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…22dabacked Yes | 37c | 29.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 80c | 26.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.