Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8505d4408bc6373232b6071c32bb0af9381d70f1e8ff4099f7b1a42f19e47790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,334$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,752$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 8c | 2,718$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,188$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 9c | 1,930$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,794$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,658$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,489$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 7c | 1,386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes | 6c | 1,265$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 8c | 995.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 2c | 864.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 862.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 834.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 3c | 685.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 431.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 7c | 425$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 6c | 425$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 7c | 406.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 331.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 6c | 258.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 7c | 251.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked Yes | 12c | 232$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 203$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…0308backed Yes | 7c | 159.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.