Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77dbb9231bdae32094130b25ea970969adfce2b0d9b29a41c4f1f405a4601415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 2c | 64,245$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.41 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…bbf5backed Yes | 6c | 8,825$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2163backed Yes | 1c | 7,534$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,843$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.18 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…c604backed Yes | 12c | 4,438$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 4,383$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 1c | 4,320$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,994$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,793$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,482$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 3,288$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 1c | 3,105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 12c | 2,541$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 2,272$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.13 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,842$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 12c | 1,700$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.31 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 5c | 1,616$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,361$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…7547backed Yes | 2c | 1,199$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,144$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,092$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,048$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 6c | 1,032$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb84…75fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…cc87backed Yes | 9c | 894.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 9c | 855.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 755.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 7c | 675.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 585.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 565.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 4c | 495.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 10c | 483.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 10c | 400.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 9c | 380$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 12c | 373.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 8c | 353.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 14c | 347.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 343.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed Yes | 3c | 335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb3…e5cdbacked Yes | 10c | 256.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 12c | 231.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 11c | 174.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 14c | 142.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 73.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.