Us Politics · resolved market
Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5916b06ac023a9fd380b05d469d508d0ad722aae7ab9c5f3efc7aefa2e8fd39f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 7c | 2,188$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 17c | 2,143$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 22c | 1,371$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,209$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.16 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 13c | 933.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…7ac8backed Yes | 4c | 640.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…9d0ebacked Yes | 4c | 532.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 76c | 433.95$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 5c | 423.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 39c | 320$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 33c | 316$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 47c | 228.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 67c | 217.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 52c | 193.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 38c | 187$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 35c | 169.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 37c | 107.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 105.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 25c | 77.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd1…acadbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 50.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 40c | 50.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…5f72backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…08e5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 48.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? this page
- Less than 50 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
- Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? Yes won
- Will 56 or more Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.